https://miguelpierre.com/2022/11/25/nyc-metro-area-weekend-forecast-11-25-22-11-27-22/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-9485600.pngecmwf-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-9485600https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/astoria-park-rfk-bridge-072722.pngAstoria Park RFK Bridge 072722https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/nam-nest-neng-refc_ptype-9586400.pngnam-nest-neng-refc_ptype-95864002022-11-25T16:11:01+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2022/07/02/july-4th-weekend-forecast-update-strong-to-severe-storms-possible-saturday-pm/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/blue-clouds-day-fluffy-53594.jpegblue skiesPhoto by Pixabay on <a href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/blue-skies-53594/" rel="nofollow">Pexels.com</a>https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nj_swody1.pngnj_swody1https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbm-conus-nyc-t2m_f_max6-6979200.pngnbm-conus-nyc-t2m_f_max6-6979200https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nj_swody2.pngnj_swody22022-07-02T14:04:17+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2022/06/27/nyc-metro-forecast-tranquil-weather-mid-week-july-4th-weekend-weather/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pexels-photo-5245865-1.jpegclouds during sunsetPhoto by Soubhagya Maharana on <a href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/clouds-during-sunset-5245865/" rel="nofollow">Pexels.com</a>https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pexels-photo-2775196.jpegwhite cloudsPhoto by Roberto Nickson on <a href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/white-clouds-2775196/" rel="nofollow">Pexels.com</a>https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pexels-photo-5245865.jpegclouds during sunsetPhoto by Soubhagya Maharana on <a href="https://www.pexels.com/photo/clouds-during-sunset-5245865/" rel="nofollow">Pexels.com</a>https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/nam-nest-nyc-dew2m_f-6446400.pngnam-nest-nyc-dew2m_f-6446400https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-dew2m_f-6442800.pngecmwf-deterministic-nyc-dew2m_f-6442800https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-6806400-1.pngecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-6806400-1https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-6806400.pngecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-6806400https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-t2m_f-6439200.pngecmwf-deterministic-nyc-t2m_f-6439200https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-6828000.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-6828000https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-6795600.pngecmwf-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-67956002022-06-27T20:10:24+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2022/05/23/nyc-metro-area-weekly-weather-outlook/2022-05-23T21:22:30+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/wxchallenge/2022-04-19T12:01:55+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/about/2022-04-19T11:54:17+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/yankeesmets-home-forecasts/2022-04-19T10:33:00+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/2015/11/29/nice-start-to-week-rain-tuesday-wednesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/12zgfsf69.gif12zGFSf6912z GFS showing rainfall and temperatures in the 50s Tuesday nighthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/12ztemp23.gif12ztemp2312z NAM lows for tonighthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/12znamf60.gif12zNAMf60The NAM showing the closed low over the Great Lakes and secondary low off NJ coast for Tuesday2015-11-29T22:38:08+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/10/16/an-early-chill-and-first-freeze-for-the-tri-state-area-the-next-few-days/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/f36.giff3612z GEFS model showing a ridge over Western North America and anomlous trough over Eastern US over the weekend.2015-10-17T00:33:03+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/24/high-wind-gusts-with-showers-and-thunderstorms-42215/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/winreports2.pngWinreports2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/radar7.gifRadar7Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through the areahttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/lllr.giflllr0km-3km lapse rates over 9.0 C/km2015-07-31T21:20:43+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/07/30/heat-continues-into-the-weekend-t-storms-likely-tomorrow/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/18znamf271.gif18zNAMf27https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/18znamf27.gif18zNAMf27The 18z NAM showing shower and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon2015-07-30T12:42:01+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/06/25/weekend-heavy-rainfall-late-saturday-better-on-sunday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12znamne_prec_prec_063.gif12znamNE_prec_prec_06312z NAM model showing heavy rain over the Tri-state area Saturday nighthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/12znamus_500_avort_063.gif12znamUS_500_avort_06312z NAM model showing an amplified ridge over Western US and deep, closed upper-level low over the Eastern US.2015-07-27T10:11:55+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/07/25/heat-humidity-returning-with-chances-of-t-storms/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/0znamne_con_mucape_045.gif0znamNE_con_mucape_0450z NAM showing moderate instability and low shear during Sunday afternoonhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/ecmf_phase_51m_full.gifECMF_phase_51m_fullhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/sst-anom-month.gifsst.anom.monthhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/6zgfsf108.gif6zGFSf10812z GFS showing middle-upper 90s for NYC metro on Wednesday2015-07-25T14:06:35+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/glossary/2015-07-07T19:20:42+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/2015/05/16/localizedisolated-strong-severe-thunderstorms-possible-this-evening/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/rad11.gifrad1112z 4km NAM showing showers and thunderstorms developing over Eastern Pa and Upstate NY, by 7pm EST2015-06-29T17:57:36+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/29/middle-70s-today-coastal-storm-stays-south-thursday-and-friday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/06_nam_012_knyc_skewt_ml.gif06_NAM_012_KNYC_skewt_ML6z NAM sounding showing mixed-layer up to 800mb for New York City this afternoonhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/6zgfsf72.gif6zGFSf72GFS showing the coastal storm offshore.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/18zgfsf842.gif18zGFSf84https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/18zgfsf84.gif18zGFSf84GFS keep the coastal storm just offshore:2015-04-29T15:17:24+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/27/update/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/0zecf120.gif0zECf120The 0z ECMWF model showing less phasing and coastal storm farther offshore Thursday and Fridayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/0znamf691.gif0zNAMf69NAM showing temperatures around 70 for parts fo the areahttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/0zgfsf102.gif0zGFSf102The 0z GFS showing coastal storm close to the area bring rain and wind on Thursday2015-04-27T11:01:18+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/25/cold-temperatures-this-morning-giveway-to-a-gradual-warming-trend/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/f1441.giff1446z GEFS showing the ridge over Central US with positive-tilted trough over East Coast. This keeps the storm over Southeast US from coming further north.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/6zgfsf111.gif6zGFSf111The GFS showing temperatures in the middle to upper 60s on Wednesday with wsw winds and sunshinehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/lowtemps2.pngLowtemps2Low temperatures overnight in the Tri-State area2015-04-25T14:24:42+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/20/heavy-rain-thunderstorm-threat-monday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/gfsne_prec_pwat_018.gifgfsNE_prec_pwat_01818z GFS showing precipitable water values over 1.2"-1.5" over the area tomorrow morning.2015-04-20T02:22:50+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/16/70s-on-saturday-heavy-rain-monday-unsettled-weather-through-next-week/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/0zgefsf192.gif0zGEFSf192https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/gfsne_850_spd_120.gifgfsNE_850_spd_1200z GFS showing 40-50kt 850mb jet over the Tri-state area on Mondayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/0znamf69.gif0zNAMf690z NAM showing widespread 70s over region on Saturday2015-04-16T15:35:15+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/forecast-summary/2015-04-15T14:33:33+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/7-day-forecasts/2015-04-15T12:57:49+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/2015/04/08/cold-and-damp-through-thursday-more-warmth-and-thunderstorms-friday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/day4prob.gifday4probhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/18znamf24.gif18zNAMf242015-04-08T01:58:45+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/03/27/snow-likely-for-eastern-long-island-and-southeast-connecticut-saturday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18zgfsf33.gif18zGFSf33https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/18zgfsokxbufkitprofile2.png18zGFSOKXbufkitprofile218z GFS forecast sounding for Brookhaven, NY at 8pm Saturday2015-03-28T15:30:07+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/03/08/mid-late-march-outlook-is-winter-over/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/12zgefsf264.gif12zGEFSf264The 12z GEFS showing +PNA pattern around March 20thhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/all_emean_phase_full.gifALL_emean_phase_full2015-03-08T18:49:39+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/03/01/1812/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/snowfallmap301-027amsun.pngSnowfallmap301-027amsun2015-03-02T11:04:26+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/28/snowfall-forecast-for-301-02-winter-storm/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/12zgfsne_700_spd_039.gif12zgfsNE_700_spd_039The 12z GFS showing nose of 40-50kt+ jet at 700mb (10,000 ft)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap301-021.pngSnowfallmap301-022015-02-28T18:17:19+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/26/snow-possible-sunday-night-then-late-tuesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18zgfsf126.gif18zGFSf12618z GFS showing the Wednesday's storm taking a track into Great Lakes. A deep trough is present over West Coast and big ridge over the East Coast.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18znamf81.gif18zNAMf8118z NAM today model showing snow from CNJ north on Monday morning.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18zgfsf87.gif18zGFSf872015-02-26T23:46:07+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/22/late-february-early-march-outlook/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ecstrate.pngECstrateECMWF model forecasting little change with stratosphere temperatures and wind not decreasinghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/sst-daily-anom.gifsst.daily.anomSea-Surface Temperature Anomalieshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/weeks1to2.pngweeks1to2850mb OLR and Wind Anomalies shifting the MJO/tropical convection into Indian Ocean and Indonesia/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.pngtwc_globe_mjo_vp200200vp anomalies 2015-02-22T16:12:58+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/21/another-wintry-mess-this-weekend/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/0zgfsne_850_spd_027.gif0zgfsNE_850_spd_02700z GFS showing 850 southwesterly jet greater than 50-60kt tomorrow evening.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap21-221.pngSnowfallmap21-22https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap221-22.pngSnowfallmap221-22https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/18zgfsne_850_spd_030.gif18zgfsNE_850_spd_03018z GFS showing 850 southwesterly jet greater than 50kt omorrow evening.2015-02-21T13:16:42+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/16/next-moderate-winter-storm-21715/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap12161.pngSnowfallmap12162015-02-17T10:37:24+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/14/snowfall-totals-for-winter-storm-214-215-saturday-8am-update/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap23.pngSnowfallmap22015-02-14T17:27:35+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/favorite-links/2015-02-14T07:54:29+00:00weekly0.6https://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/13/snowfall-forecast-for-winter-storm-214-215/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap2141.pngSnowfallmap214https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap214.pngSnowfallmap2142015-02-13T22:14:19+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/01/winter-storm-snowfall-forecast-20215-update/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/snowfallmap21.pngSnowfallmap2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/6znamhpnbufkitprofile.png6zNAMhpnbufkitprofile6z NAM showing warm nose between 800-900mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/6zrgem850mb.gif6zRGEM850mb6z RGEM model showing 850mb low over Western NY Monday morning and 850mb temperatures above 0C over Tri-state areahttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/frontb26.pngfrontb266z NAM showing significant frontogenesis forecast between 600mb and 800mb.2015-02-01T13:45:42+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/02/01/winter-storm-20215-snowfall-forecast/2015-02-01T00:56:57+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/01/26/major-noreaster-to-bring-historic-blizzard-to-tri-state-area/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/18znamne_700_vvel_036.gif18znamNE_700_vvel_036The 18z NAM showing a circular band with strong vertical velocities.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/snowfallmap11.pngSnowfallmap12015-01-26T09:13:43+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/01/23/coastal-storm-snowfall-forecast-12415/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/snowfall-map-21.pngSnowfall Map 2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/namne_925_temp_033.gifnamNE_925_temp_033https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/namne_700_vvel_033.gifnamNE_700_vvel_033https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/snowfallmap1.pngSnowfallmap12015-01-23T20:39:52+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2015/01/05/a-little-snow-and-bitter-cold-coming-this-week/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/12znamf27.gif12zNAMf27The 12z NAM showing light snow with weakening clipper system on Tuesdayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/12znamf72.gif12zNAMf722015-01-05T17:59:54+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/12/08/noreaster-impacts-120914-121014/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/peak-wind-gust-forecast-12101.pngPeak Wind Gust Forecast 12102014-12-08T13:56:37+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/12/05/potential-for-major-noreaster-128-1209/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/18zgfsf108.gif18zGFSf108https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/18zgfsf961.gif18zGFSf96https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/18zgfsf96.gif18zGFSf96https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/12zggemf90.gif12zGGEMf90https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/12zukmet.gif12zUKMEThttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/12zecmwff120.gif12zECMWFf1202014-12-05T23:54:50+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/26/tri-state-area-snowfall-forecast-for112614-noreaster/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/namne_700_temp_015.gifnamNE_700_temp_0156z NAM showing closed 700mb with 60kt+ southwest winds over the coastal plainhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/6znamlgabufkit.png6zNAMLGAbufkit6z NAM sounding in the Bufkit at LaGuardia Airport, NY, at 1pm todayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/namne_700_spd_015.gifnamNE_700_spd_015https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/snowfallmap3.pngSnowfallmap3Final Call Snowfall map issued at 7am.2014-11-26T13:23:33+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/25/first-guess-on-snowfall-totals-for-thanksgiving-eve-noreaster/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/snowfallmap.pngSnowfallmap2014-11-25T04:54:48+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/24/rain-arrives-late-tonight-warmer-monday-afternoon-potential-noreaster-thanksgiving-eve/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/rad11.gifrad11HRRR showing rain with embbeded heavy downpours moving through the area tomorrow morninghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgfsne_prec_pwat_015.gif18zgfsNE_prec_pwat_015https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18znamf24.gif18zNAMf2418z NAM showing temperatures near 70 over Central New Jersey tomorrow afternoonhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgfsus_250_spd_066.gif18zgfsUS_250_spd_06618z GFS 250 jet stream windshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12zecf96.gif12zECf96The 12z ECMWF showing more phasing of disturbance causing a deeper low to hug the coast and bring more warmer air alofthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgfs950mbwinds.gif18zGFS950mbwindsThe 18z GFS showing wind 950mb (2000 feet) at 50k to 60kts over NYC, Long Island, and Eastern NJ2014-11-24T02:02:28+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/18/heavy-lake-effect-snows-for-western-ny-record-lows-possible-wednesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stormtotalsnowfcst.pngStormTotalSnowFcsthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/new_york-rad.gifNew_York.rad2014-11-19T13:59:23+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/17/heavy-rain-gusty-winds-this-evening-coldest-air-of-the-season-follow-tuesday-wednesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/t85w39.gift85w396z NAM 850mb temperatures dropping to near -16C tomorrowhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/rad15.gifrad156z 4km WRF showing convection with heavy rainfall in the NYC Metro this eveninghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/namne_con_mucape_015.gifnamNE_con_mucape_0156z NAM showing elevated instabilityhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/temp60.giftemp606z 4km NAM showing temperatures in the teens on Wednesday morninghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/namne_925_spd_015.gifnamNE_925_spd_0156z NAM showing 925mb winds 50-70kts for the coastal areas2014-11-17T16:10:37+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/13/first-snowflakes-likely-tonight-for-the-tri-state-area/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12znamne_700_spd_018.gif12znamNE_700_spd_01812z NAM strengthen 700mb jet sreakhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/frontb18.pngfrontb1812z NAM showing moderate frontogenesis over the Tri-State area from 600mb to 800mb https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12zcld19.gif12zcld19High resolution models 4km NMM and ARW showing snow2014-11-13T19:31:39+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/11/mild-temperatures-through-wednesday-artic-air-invades-by-friday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12zecf240.gif12zECf240The 12z ECMWF model showing winter storm developing south of the region.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgefsf1802.gif18zGEFSf180The GEFS showing the polar vortex over James Bay and trough over the Central and Eastern US.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgefsf84t.gif18zGEFSf84Thttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgefsf84.gif18zGEFSf84The GEFS at 500mb. A blocking ridge over Alaska and Northwest Canada (known as -EPO). Positive height anomalies extending into Greenland and Iceland (known as an east-based -NAO)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18znamf48.gif18zNAMf48The NAM showing tempeatures in lower 60s and scattered showers in parts of the area on Wednesday.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zgefsf180.gif18zGEFSf1802014-11-11T04:04:11+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/07/remannts-of-super-typhoon-nuri-phasing-into-very-deep-extratropical-low-in-the-bering-sea/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/s_4gvf.jpgs_4gvfhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tweet924mb.pngTweet924mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/p_w_sfc_color1.pngP_w_sfc_colorhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/18zpyba08ir.gif18zpyba08irhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tweet96mphgust.pngTweet96mphgusthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/pyba06ir.gifpyba06irhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/p_w_sfc_color.pngP_w_sfc_color2014-11-09T16:54:10+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/04/cold-pattern-emerging-for-the-eastern-us-next-week/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/temp10anim.giftemp10animhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/6zgefsf180.gif6zGEFSf180https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/0zecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png0zecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/0znafes05.png0zNAFES05https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/0zecmwf-ens_t850a_namer_10.png0zecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/sst-daily-anom.gifsst.daily.anomhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/6zgefsf168.gif6zGEFSf168https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/0znafes.png0zNAFEShttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ecnuriforecast.gifECNuriforecasthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12zgefsf168.gif12zGEFSf1682014-11-05T13:30:31+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/11/02/strong-winds-and-chilly-tempartures-today/2014-11-02T14:43:15+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/10/22/coastal-storm-update/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/windradarobs643pm.pngWindRadarobs643pmSurface wind, temps with radar overlaped at 6:43pm EDT https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/rapne_925_spd_009.gifrapNE_925_spd_00921z RAP from College Dupage Sitehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/windradarobs.pngWindRadarobsSurface wind, temps with radar overlaped at 4:29pm EDT 2014-10-22T23:01:51+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/10/20/cut-off-low-impacts-for-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-this-week/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/12znamne_850_spd_060.gif12znamNE_850_spd_06012z NAM model showing a 850mb 50kt+ easterly jet over parts of Northern New England.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/12znamus_500_avort_069.gif12znamUS_500_avort_069Closed/Cut-off Low over the East coast2014-10-20T20:27:24+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/10/17/major-hurricane-gonzalo-bears-down-on-bermuda/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/gonzalo_17oct14_bermuda_long.gifGonzalo_17Oct14_bermuda_longhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/5am-track1.gif5am Track5am Friday National Hurricane Center forecast out to 3 days.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/rbtop-animated1.gifrbtop-animatedHurricane Gonzalohttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/avn0.gifavn0https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/wavewatch18zgfs.pngWaveWatch18zGFS2014-10-17T11:00:40+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/10/15/heavy-rains-tonight-for-ny-tri-state-area-hurricane-gonzalo-a-threat-to-bermuda/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/12zgfsne_sfc_temp_117.gif12zgfsNE_sfc_temp_11712z GFS showing temperatures in the 30s over the tri-state area Sunday night. https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/vis0.gifvis0Visible image late this afternoon of Hurricane Gonzalohttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/rad14.gifrad1418z HRRR today showing band of heavy rain or thunderstorms moving into the Tri-State area overnight2014-10-15T21:59:37+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/24/coastal-storm-to-bring-heavy-rain-and-winds-to-tri-state-area/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/wind-forecast-092514.pngWind Forecast 092514https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/et0z3.gifet0z3https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rainfall-totals-092514.pngRainfall Totals 0925142014-09-24T23:50:47+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/23/significant-coastal-storm-possible-wednesday-night-and-thursday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/f51.giff51https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/f54.giff546z GFS from overnight showing coastal storm over Delmarva with rain over the Tri-State area. Wettest soultionhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/f60.giff600z GFS from overnight showing coastal storm over Delmarva with rain over the Tri-State area.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014092304_highressst_nec.png2014092304_highResSst_NEC2014-09-23T13:37:03+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/15/hurricane-odile-slams-into-baja-california-edouard-almost-major-hurricane/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rbtop-animated3.gifrbtop-animatedhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/damage3.pngDamage3https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/damage2.pngDamage2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/cabosanlucasdamage1.pngCaboSanLucasdamage1https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rbtop-animated2.gifrbtop-animated22014-09-16T00:05:03+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/14/major-hurricane-odile-threatens-baja-california-hurricane-edouard-no-threat-to-land/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/145811w5_nl_sm.gif145811W5_NL_smhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/145744w5_nl_sm.gif145744W5_NL_smhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/vis01.gifvis0https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/vis0.gifvis0https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rbtop02.gifrbtop02014-09-15T11:08:54+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/14/tropical-update-91214-odile-threatens-the-baja-edouard-out-to-sea-invests-92l-93l-fizzle/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/aep15_2014091400_track_early.pngaep15_2014091400_track_earlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/8pm-pdt-track1.gif8pm PDT Trackhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rbtop01.gifrbtop0https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/aal06_2014091400_track_early.pngaal06_2014091400_track_earlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rbtop0.gifrbtop02014-09-14T16:57:34+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/14/auroras-brighten-the-northern-skies/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/quebec-aurora.jpgQuebec AuroraBurntcoat, Nova Scotia. Photo Credit: Tim Lingley https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/nova-scotia-aurora.jpgNova Scotia AuroraBurncoat, Nova Scotia. Photo Credit: Tim Lingley https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/mt-washington-aurora.jpgMt. Washington AuroraMt. Washington Observatory in New Hampshire. Credit: Ryan Knapphttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/mt-washington-aurora.pngMt. Washington Aurora2014-09-14T04:23:06+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/12/tropical-update-edouard-invests-92l-93l/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/sat_241.gifsat_24Visible of nvest 93L over Florida form PSU Ewallhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6zgefsf132.gif6zGEFSf1326z GFS ensemble mean from PSU ewallhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/aal92_2014091212_track_early.pngaal92_2014091212_track_early12zhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/aal93_2014091212_track_early.pngaal93_2014091212_track_earlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/aal06_2014091212_track_early.pngaal06_2014091212_track_early12z model runs on Tropical Storm Edouard from NCAR, showing a recurve well northeast of Leeward Islands https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/sat_24.gifsat_24This morning visible Image of Tropical Storm Edouard from PSU Ewall2014-09-12T15:54:09+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/11/why-models-show-less-t-storms-late-today/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ny-vis.gifNY.vishttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6znamne_700_spd_015.gif6znamNE_700_spd_015https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6znamne_con_sbcape_015.gif6znamNE_con_sbcape_015https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6znamne_850_spd_015.gif6znamNE_850_spd_0152014-09-11T13:28:55+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/10/warmer-humid-tomorrow-with-pm-t-storms/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/18znamne_con_pwat_030.gif18znamNE_con_pwat_030https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/skt_nam__kewr.pngSKT_NAM__kewr12z NAM sounding for Newark tomorrow afternoon at 5pm. (Image courtesy of Earl's Models Skew-T Page)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/12znamne_con_mlcape_033.gif12znamNE_con_mlcape_033https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/12znamne_con_pwat_033.gif12znamNE_con_pwat_03312z NAM today precipitable water values over 2.20"+https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/12znamf33.gif12zNAMf33The 12z NAM models showing 80s for highs over much of NJ and NYC, with southwest winds. Then some showers or thunderstorms for the northwest.2014-09-10T21:22:28+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/08/unsetteled-weather-this-week-cooler-weather-to-follow-next-weekend/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6znamf54.gif6zNAMf54https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/0zgefsf192.gif0zGEFSf1922014-09-08T11:23:58+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/06/hot-humid-with-strong-thunderstorms-possible-today/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/namne_con_mlcape_012.gifnamNE_con_mlcape_012https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/temp13.giftemp13https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6znamne_con_mucape_012.gif6znamNE_con_mucape_0126z NAM model this morning showing MUCAPE 1500 j/kg - 2500 j/kg over the Tri-State area2014-09-07T14:34:51+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/09/04/volitale-pattern-the-next-few-weeks/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ecmf_phase_51m_full.gifECMF_phase_51m_fullhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/0zecens.gif0zECENShttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/6zgefsf288.gif6zGEFSf288https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ncpe_phase_21m_full.gifNCPE_phase_21m_fullhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/00znafes.png00zNAFEShttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/0zgfsec500mb.gif0zGFSEC500mb2014-09-04T19:05:28+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/14/record-rainfall-for-islip-new-york-81314/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/wabcfloodingimages1.jpgWABCfloodingimagesEmergency official attending to cars stuck in several feet of water on highways Wednesday morninghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/dualpolradar.jpgDualPolradarNational Weather Service from Upton,NY Dual Pol radar estimates up more than 10" over SW Nassau and NW Suffolk Countieshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/sfnt_14081307.gifsfnt_14081307SPC Mesohttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/dlcp_14081307.gifdlcp_14081307SPC Mesoanalysis showing deep moist convergence early Tuesday morning over Central LI.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/9zslp.png9zslpSPC mesoanalysis showing the primarily low over Canada. Secondary low east of NJ causing heavy thunderstorms over Long Island early Wednesday morning.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/news4lisinkhole.jpgNews4LIsinkholeSinkhole caused by heavy rainfall over LI. Image courtesy of WNBC New York2014-09-04T13:03:34+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/31/very-warm-humid-through-labor-day-with-heavy-thunderstorms-likely/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/6znamne_con_mlcape_012.gif6znamNE_con_mlcape_0126z NAM model showing MLCAPE between 1000 J/kg and 2000 J/kg by early this afternoon over the Tri-State area.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/6znamf15hr.gif6zNAMf15hr6z NAM showing a surface temps middle to upper 80s in most areas with dews in 60s (top left). Also a shortwave trough approaching trigging showers and thunderstorms west of New York Cityhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/6znamne_con_pwat_018.gif6znamNE_con_pwat_0186z NAM showing (pwats) precipitate water values 2.00" over greater over the Tri-state area2014-09-01T09:30:54+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/26/some-heat-returns-labor-day-weekend-looking-unsettled/2014-08-26T03:54:17+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/24/tropical-storm-cristobal-no-threat-likely-to-the-us/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0zecf144.gif0zECf1440z ECMWF showing Cristobal being captured by new upper-level trough and into the North Atlantichttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/aal04_2014082412_track_early.pngaal04_2014082412_track_earlytoday's 12z guidance showing a recurve out to sea this week:https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/12zwg8sht.gif12zwg8shtCIMMS Shear Tendency Analysis at 12z showing light shear over Cristobal (the L)2014-08-25T03:21:14+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/22/watching-invest-96l-over-northeast-carribean/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/wg8shr15z.gifwg8shr15zhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/aal96_2014082212_track_early.pngaal96_2014082212_track_early2014-08-24T11:03:44+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/05/15/heavy-rainfall-for-the-east-coast-thursday-and-friday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/gfsne_sfc_precacc_0661.gifgfsNE_sfc_precacc_066The 0z GFS showing 2″ -3 of rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic Region (image courtesy of College of Dupage)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/gfsne_con_pwat_051.gifgfsNE_con_pwat_051The 0z GFS tonight showing preciptable water values over 1.5" over the tri-state area Friday nighthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/rad31.gifrad312014-08-18T09:18:37+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/17/near-or-below-normal-temperatures-likely-to-continue/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/sst-anom-month.gifsst.anom.monthhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0zecens.png0zECENShttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0zgefsf144.gif0zGEFSf144https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0znaefs1.png0zNAEFShttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/mjoforecasts.pngMJOforecastsECMWF, GFS and UKMET ensemble MJO forecasts in phase 1 or 2 https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/sst-anom-seasonal.gifsst.anom.seasonalhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ecmf_phase_51m_full.gifECMF_phase_51m_fullECMWF forecast showing the MJO in phase 2 next week2014-08-17T15:35:59+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/12/heavy-rain-thunderstorms-coming-tonight/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0znamus_500_avort_030.gif0znamUS_500_avort_030Trough going negativehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/namlgabufkit.pngNAMLGAbufkitThe 0z NAM Bufkit showing MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg at 15z Wednesdayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/flash-flood-watch.pngFlash Flood WatchFlash Flood Watches in Green by the National Weather Servicehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/2xradara5_anim.gif2xradara5_animRadar loop courtesty of Weatherundergroundhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0znamne_con_pwat_033.gif0znamNE_con_pwat_033The 0z NAM showing precipitable water values near 2.00" or higher late tonight with the deep southerly flow.2014-08-12T10:41:35+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/07/hurricanes-iselle-and-julio-threaten-hawaii/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/noaaimage.jpgNOAAimageImage courtesy of NOAAhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/aep10_2014080618_track_early.pngaep10_2014080618_track_earlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/5pmetnhctrack.gif5pmETNHCtrack11HST forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center2014-08-11T09:35:34+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/04/bertha-strenghtens-as-it-begins-to-recurve/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/5amnhctrack1.gif5amNHCtrack2014-08-04T15:38:55+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/03/unsettled-weather-continues-bertha-no-threat-to-the-us/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/12znamne_500_avort_012.gif12znamNE_500_avort_01212z NAM showing shortwave over PA late this afternoonhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/aal03_2014080312_track_early.pngaal03_2014080312_track_early12z model projects. Strong consensus on a recurve between U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 2014-08-03T15:02:53+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/08/01/tropical-storm-bertha-forms/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/5amnhctrack.gif5amNHCtrackNational Hurricane Forecast from 5am EDT Advisoryhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/0zgefsf120.gif0zGEFSf1200z GFS ensemble mean 500mb forecast at 120hrs. Showing a trough over the Eastern US. No high-lattidue blocking over the Atlantic. https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/6zatlanticshear.gif6zAtlanticShear6z Friday analays from CIMSS shows 30-40kts of upper-level shear over the Eastern Caribbean. https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/aal03_2014080106_track_early.pngaal03_2014080106_track_early6z Friday Model Projected Tracks2014-08-01T11:05:06+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/22/tropical-depression-2-unlikely-a-major-threat/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/wvimage.jpgwvimagehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/5amnhcforecast.gif5amNHCforecasthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/aal92_2014072118_track_early.pngaal92_2014072118_track_early2014-07-25T09:27:43+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/21/humidity-t-storms-return-briefly-by-wednesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/18_gfs_048_knyc_skewt_ml.gif18_GFS_048_KNYC_skewt_MLGFS Model forecast sounding for NYC at 18z (2pm ET) Wednesday. MLCAPE 1434 J/kg, L57 6.8 C/km and weak directional shear support pulse severe thunderstorms.2014-07-22T00:06:58+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/19/severe-thunderstorms-hit-long-island-71514/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/0zokxsounding.gif0zOKXsoundingOKX Sounding from balloon launch at 8pm Tuesday 7/15/14https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/radar4.gifRadar4Image courtesy of Weather Underground.2014-07-19T20:20:52+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/15/possible-tornado-in-southern-nj-more-flooding-and-severe-t-storms-likely-today/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/radar6.gifTornadoBase velocity radar loop show strong rotation with winds 75kts aloft near Perbermton, NJ (courtesy of Weather Underground)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/6zgfsne_con_sbcape_015.gif6zgfsNE_con_sbcape_015Today's 6z run of the GFS, showing SBCAPE values between over 1500 J/kg - 2500 j/kg over the tri-state area. (image courtesy of College of Dupage)https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/6zgfsne_con_pwat_018.gif6zgfsNE_con_pwat_0182014-07-15T16:55:04+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/15/quick-update-on-severe-wx-threat-today/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/hrrrnesf_con_stp_009.gifhrrrNEsf_con_stp_009https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/hrrrnesf_con_sbcape_009.gifhrrrNEsf_con_sbcape_009https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/okx1.gifOKXhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gifday1probotlk_1300_wind2014-07-15T15:30:41+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/13/severe-weather-flooding-threats-monday-tuesday-71414/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/day2probotlk_1730_any.gifday2probotlk_1730_anySPC 1730 UTC outlook with 15% risk of severe thunderstorms on Mondayhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/12znamkswfhodo.png12zNAMkswfhodoHodograph on the 12z NAM model with strong directional shear and significant CAPE over Newburgh, NY2014-07-15T10:48:32+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/08/potential-for-severe-thunderstorms-late-today/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/12znamne_850_spd_012.gif12znamNE_850_spd_01212z NAM showing 40-60kt 850mb jethttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/day1otlk_1300.gifday1otlk_1300Storm Prediction Center outlook for 13z Wednesday, shows slight risk for parts Upstate NY, Pennsylvania, and Extreme Western Nj 2014-07-08T14:43:58+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/07/02/tropical-storm-arthur-t-storms-wed-thurs/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/1115zrbtop0.gif1115zrbtop02014-07-02T03:56:15+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/06/29/first-atlantic-tropical-storm-possible-off-the-southeast-us/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/2pmatl1.gif2pmatl1https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/al912014.pngal912014Today's 18z model plots for the low of Southeast Coast labled 91L Invest2014-06-29T22:05:25+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/06/03/warm-humid-storms-today-more-rain-storms-possible-wednesday-night-thursday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/06_nam_039_knyc_skewt_sb.gif06_NAM_039_KNYC_skewt_SB6z NAM showing strong capping inversion tomorrowhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/06_nam_015_kttn_skewt_sb.gif06_NAM_015_KTTN_skewt_SB6z NAM model sounding for Trenton, NJ late this afternoon, for high SBCAPE, weak shear & pwat 1.77"2014-06-03T12:46:11+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/05/06/when-will-warmth-be-here-stay/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/gfsne_sfc_temp_069.gifgfsNE_sfc_temp_069GFS showing the warm front remaining south of the Tri-State area on Thursday.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/sst-anom-seasonal.gifsst.anom.seasonalWarm SST anomaly across the Northeast Pacifichttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/nino34sea.gifnino34SeaCFSv2 forceast for https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/70mb90651.gif70mb906570mb temps in lower stratosphere are currently above averagehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ecmf_phase_51m_full2.gifECMF_phase_51m_full15-day ECMWF ensemble forecast for MJO propagate into phases 2 and 3 next week into phases 4 and 5, the following weekhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/jan-april2014500mb.gifJan-April2014500mb500mb mean height anomalies from January-April 2014 showing an -EPO pattern dominating over North Americahttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/gfs_t70_nh_f240.gifgfs_t70_nh_f240https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ecmf_phase_51m_full1.gifECMF_phase_51m_fullhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/sst-daily-anom1.gifsst.daily.anomWarm Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies over Eastern Pacific.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ecmf_phase_51m_full.gifECMF_phase_51m_full2014-05-16T11:21:06+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/05/01/heavy-rainfall-and-flooding-recap-429-430/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/t-61.gift-6https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/dixradartotalrainfall.pngDIXRadartotalrainfall2014-05-01T23:55:36+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/04/30/heavy-rainfall-minor-coastal-flooding-through-tonight/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/gfsne_sfc_prec_021.gifgfsNE_sfc_prec_0216z GFS showing heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms tonight over the region.2014-04-30T11:52:22+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/04/28/cut-off-low-to-bring-heavy-rainfall-midweek/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/gfsne_con_pwat_066.gifgfsNE_con_pwat_06612z GFS showing precipitable water values at 1.50 inches and higher, Wednesday night.https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/gfsne_850_spd_066.gifgfsNE_850_spd_06612z GFS showing strong low-level jet at 850mb (5000ft)2014-04-30T01:53:39+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/04/27/severe-wx-outbreak-to-the-west-today-and-tomorrow/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/day2otlk_0600.gifday2otlk_0600https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/sref_prob_combined_sigtor__f0151.gifSREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/day1otlk_1300.gifday1otlk_13002014-04-27T15:25:00+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/04/10/potential-for-70-degree-warmth-411-414/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/6znamf75.gif18zNAMf7518z NAM showing 70+ temps over Western NJ and 50s with drizzle over NYC, LI and the NJ and CT coasts.2014-04-10T23:24:02+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/31/suprise-snows-after-heavy-weekend-rains/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/radar5.gifRadar5OKX radar showing narrow frontogentic band over Central LI and CThttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zokxsoundingcsi.gif12zOKXsoundingCSIOKX sounding at 12 UTC time. Showing steep mid-level lapes rateshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/dlcp_14033004.gifdlcp_140330042014-03-31T23:03:59+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/28/heavy-rainfall-likely-saturday-night/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamf42.gif12zNAMf42https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamfrontb42.png12zNAMfrontb4212z NAM showing 600mb-800mb frontogenesis Saturday nighthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamfrontb41.png12zNAMfrontb4112z NAM showing frontogenesis coming out Western NJhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zbukfitnam1.png12zBukfitNAMBukfit sounding for LGA 12z NAM shows a 50-60kt LLJ, pwat near 1.35" and a large of omega2014-03-28T21:30:22+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/27/record-lows-followed-by-rainy-weekend/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zgefsf1921.gif12zGEFSf192https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18zgefsf192.gif18zGEFSf192https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18zgfsne_850_spd_0601.gif18zgfsNE_850_spd_060https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18zgfsne_con_pwat_060.gif18zgfsNE_con_pwat_0602014-03-28T20:49:07+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/26/powerful-ocean-storm-forms/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/buoy44150pressure1.pngBuoy44150pressurehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/wreckhouse116mphgust.pngWreckhouse116mphgusthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/buoy44137.pngBuoy44137https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/novascotiapeakgusts.pngNovaScotiapeakgustshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/newfoundlandpeakgusts.pngNewfoundlandpeakgustshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/newenglandpeakgusts.pngNewEnglandpeakgustshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/nasasatellite.gifNASAsatellitehttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/namnesfc21wbg.gifnamnesfc21wbghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/129mphgust.jpg129mphgusthttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/buoy44027118mph2.pngBuoy44027118mph2014-03-28T00:03:31+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/24/noreaster-mostly-a-miss/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18znamf57.gif18zNAMf57https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18zgfsf57.gif18zGFSf572014-03-24T00:17:31+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/21/noreaster-possible-tuesday-into-wednesday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/18zgfsf138.gif18zGFSf138https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zukmet144hr.gif12zUKMET144hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zggemf144.gif12zGGEMf144https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zmslp_north32america_144.gif12zMSLP_North32America_1442014-03-21T01:55:18+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/14/winter-storm-possible-sunday-nightmonday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/6znamf841.gif6zNAMf84https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/6znamf78.png6zNAMf78https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/0zcmc84hr.png0zCMC84hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/6zgfs84hr2.png6zGFS84hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/6zgfs84hr.png6zGFS84hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/0zec96hr.png0zEC96hr2014-03-15T03:24:27+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/11/mild-today-rain-wednesday-bitter-cold-thursday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamrad36.gif12zNAMrad36https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamf39.gif12zNAMf392014-03-11T19:32:16+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/09/march-12-13-storm-looking-more-wet-than-white/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zec72hr.png12zEC72hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zgfsf90.gif12zGFSf90https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zgfsf84.gif12zGFSf84https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12znamf57.gif12zNAMf572014-03-11T08:37:34+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/05/traquil-conditions-through-early-next-week/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/0zecf168.gif0zECf1682014-03-05T13:51:25+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/03/lobe-of-polar-vortex-suppresses-winter-storm/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/5wv-animated.gif5wv-animated2014-03-03T20:25:26+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/02/new-snowfall-map-for-302-303/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/finalsnwofallmap0303.pngFinalSnwofallmap03032014-03-02T16:32:12+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/03/01/snowfall-map-for-winter-storm-sunday-night-and-monday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/firstsnowfallmap03032.pngFirstSnowfallmap0303https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/firstsnowfallmap03031.pngFirstSnowfallmap0303https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/12zecf48.gif12zECf482014-03-01T20:42:16+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/27/major-winter-storm-more-likely-for-sunday-night-and-monday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zgfsf102.gif12zGFSf102https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/wv-animated.gifwv-animatedhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zecens850mb.gif12zECENS850mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zecens500mb1.gif12zECENS500mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/18zfrontb20.png18zfrontb20https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/ecmwfus_200_spd_096.gifecmwfUS_200_spd_0962014-02-27T22:59:45+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/26/no-rest-from-old-man-winter/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/longisland-rad.gifLongIsland.radhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12znamf66.gif12zNAMf66https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/ecmf_phase_manom_51m_full2.gifECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_fullhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zgfs120hr.png12zGFS120hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zggem144hr.png12zGGEM144hrhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zecens500mb.png12zECENS500mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/0zecens500mb.png0zECENS500mbhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zecen500mb168hr.png12zECEN500mb168hr2014-02-26T23:05:04+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/24/cold-pattern-arrives-storms-to-follow/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/6zgfs57.gif6zGFS572014-02-24T14:55:52+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/21/more-cold-and-snow-for-next-week-into-march/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/current_anom_200wind1.gifcurrent_anom_200windhttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/220mjoforecasts.png220MJOforecastshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/70mb9065.gif70mb9065https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/ecfluxes.gifECfluxeshttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zgefsd8.gif12zGEFSD8https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zgefsf168.gif12zGEFSf1682014-02-21T02:06:24+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2011/01/18/snow-and-ice-map-for-117-18/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/snowfall2bmap2b0118.gifSnow and Ice Map for 1/17-18https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/6b727-snowfall2bmap2b0118.gif6b727-snowfall2bmap2b0118https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/f05d4-snowfall2bmap2b0118.giff05d4-snowfall2bmap2b01182014-02-19T18:25:51+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2011/01/18/friday-storm-121/2014-02-19T18:25:18+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2013/06/01/okc-metro-tornado-radar-images/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/radar6.gifRadar6https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/radar7.gifRadar7https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/radar2.gifRadar2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/radar1.gifRadar12014-02-19T18:24:42+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/03/updated-snowfall-map-20314-winter-storm/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/snowfallmap3.pngSnowfallmap32014-02-19T18:21:50+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/02/winter-storm-for-the-tri-state-area-21314/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/snowfallmap21.pngSnowfallmap2https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/namne_500_avort_027.gifnamNE_500_avort_027https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/18zgfsus_250_spd_021.gif18zgfsUS_250_spd_021https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/12zgfsnycsounding.gif12zGFSNYCsoundinghttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/18zgfsne_500_vvel_018.gif18zgfsNE_500_vvel_018https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/snowfallmap2.pngSnowfallmap22014-02-19T18:20:54+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2013/06/04/el-reno-tornado-widest-ever-in-the-us/2014-02-19T18:06:12+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/15/snowstorm-21514/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/snowfallmap21514.pngSnowfallmap215142014-02-19T18:03:02+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/19/rain-today-strong-thunderstorms-possible-friday/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/day3prob_08301.gifday3prob_0830https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/gfsne_500_spd_060.gifgfsNE_500_spd_060https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/radar2.gifRadar22014-02-19T18:01:26+00:00monthlyhttps://miguelpierre.com/2014/02/17/snowfall-map-and-discussion-for-21814-winter-storm/https://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/130am-snowfall-map1.png130am Snowfall maphttps://miguelpierre.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/130am-snowfall-map.png130am Snowfall 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