Not much has changed on my thinking for the storm mid-week which looks like it may come a day earlier on 12/19. The models have been waffling a somewhat on their solutions since yesterday, but overall still expect a wave of low pressure to form along the front that will stall to our south and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. I don’t believe the storm will going to cutting through the Great Lakes as 18z GFS from yesterday showed. Precipitation looks like it will be rain across most of the area on late Monday night and Tuesday, but as the low pressure moves off the coast, and possibly deepens as shown by the 0z ECWMF last night and 12z GFS yesterday, colder air may come behind storm and change the rain to snow or flurries before ending late Tues. or Tuesday night, especially NW of NYC. At this time, this doesn’t appear to be a signficant snowfall for this area.
The threat for a major storm producing alot of rain or snow still exists on 12/23 (maybe as early as 12/22 per 0z EC and 6z GFS?) but the models have yet to be consistent on a track or scenerio for this event and probably won’t for sometime.
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Miguel Pierre Weather 