The models have trended to bring the cold front moving through the area early Tuesday further to the south and now show low pressure development well south and east of this area. If this true will have a chance of a few showers early Tues, before it turns drier and colder the rest of the day. However, I’m not ready to accept, as I suspect the models may be lowering the heights over the over the east coast too much, as the SE Ridge has been unusually strong so far this month. So at this time, I still low pressure to form over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning and quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast probably just south LI by Tuesday evening. Rain will fall on Tuesday, with a possiblity of mix or changeover to wet snow before it end Tuesday night, as the low begins to deepen offshore and wraps cold air behind it. I will be looking at future runs of the models this weekend to see if the trends continue to show the former solution.
As for 12/22 and beyond, it is becoming increasing certain what is going to happen around here. The models inconsistent in there solutions for the potential major storm around during this period, and now show several weaker systems that could effect our area. One system could into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at end of the week, bringing us mainly rain. Another system could develop along the east coast closer to X-mas and bring us some rain and/or snow. And perhaps another system a couple days after that one. Until they show more consistent solutions, ( for about 3 runs or so) I can’t believe anything at this time, except that period looks potentially colder and stormier. Alot here may also depend on what happens with 12/19 storm and how they handle that one.
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Miguel Pierre Weather 