All the models continue to show the cold front passing through area Monday night moving well to the south on Tuesday, with low pressure developing well south and east us. So I now expect Tuesday be drier and turn colder. On Wednesday the core of cold air be on top of us, temps may not make it out of the 30’s. Then after that, High pressure begins to move offshore and we get into a SW flow that will bring in milder into the area for late week and into next weekend.

This means that our next storm coming in on 12/22 and 12/23 will more likely bring us rain than snow. After looking at the models since yesterday, it doesn’t appear at this time we will be tapping enough of cold air from Canada to produce an appreciable snowfall here. They have seemed to reach a consensus that one storm developing over the SW states on Wednesday should move NE through the Mid-West and Western Great Lakes on Friday, while a secondary storm forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday. This should be bring rain into area Friday night and Saturday. Of course, this storm is still more than 5 days away, and things still could change.

As for X-mas day, looks like it will be mild until another cold front move through later in day or at night. The 0z GFS shows another storm coming up from the south but it looks mild enough for mainly rain as well. A white christmas looks unlikely at this point.

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The models have trended to bring the cold front moving through the area early Tuesday further to the south and now show low pressure development well south and east of this area. If this true will have a chance of a few showers early Tues, before it turns drier and colder the rest of the day. However, I’m not ready to accept, as I suspect the models may be lowering the heights over the over the east coast too much, as the SE Ridge has been unusually strong so far this month. So at this time, I still low pressure to form over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning and quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast probably just south LI by Tuesday evening. Rain will fall on Tuesday, with a possiblity of mix or changeover to wet snow before it end Tuesday night, as the low begins to deepen offshore and wraps cold air behind it. I will be looking at future runs of the models this weekend to see if the trends continue to show the former solution.

As for 12/22 and beyond, it is becoming increasing certain what is going to happen around here. The models inconsistent in there solutions for the potential major storm around during this period, and now show several weaker systems that could effect our area. One system could into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at end of the week, bringing us mainly rain. Another system could develop along the east coast closer to X-mas and bring us some rain and/or snow. And perhaps another system a couple days after that one. Until they show more consistent solutions, ( for about 3 runs or so) I can’t believe anything at this time, except that period looks potentially colder and stormier. Alot here may also depend on what happens with 12/19 storm and how they handle that one.

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Not much has changed on my thinking for the storm mid-week which looks like it may come a day earlier on 12/19. The models have been waffling a somewhat on their solutions since yesterday, but overall still expect a wave of low pressure to form along the front that will stall to our south and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. I don’t believe the storm will going to cutting through the Great Lakes as 18z GFS from yesterday showed. Precipitation looks like it will be rain across most of the area on late Monday night and Tuesday, but as the low pressure moves off the coast, and possibly deepens as shown by the 0z ECWMF last night and 12z GFS yesterday, colder air may come behind storm and change the rain to snow or flurries before ending late Tues. or Tuesday night, especially NW of NYC. At this time, this doesn’t appear to be a signficant snowfall for this area.

The threat for a major storm producing alot of rain or snow still exists on 12/23 (maybe as early as 12/22 per 0z EC and 6z GFS?) but the models have yet to be consistent on a track or scenerio for this event and probably won’t for sometime.

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