The rest of this week and early next week will be mild with high temps in the upper 50’s to around 60. So any precip coming through this period will be rain. However a high pressure from Northern Canada will start moving into the Midwest and then the Northeast next week, ushering in somewhat colder air, as the pacific jet begins to split and buckle the flow from NW to SE.

On Tuesday, the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF shows a cold front moving through our area and stall to our south, near the Mason-Dixon line. Temps will drop from the 50’s early to the 40’s by end of day and into the 30’s at night. On Wednesday, the front will being to move back to north as a wave low pressure forms along it and moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air overunning the cooler air cause precipation to develop ahead of this front over the are late Tuesday At this time it appears to ME, that it will be remain warm enough for a cold rain along the coast, including NYC and surrounding suburbs, while some snow and/or ice could fall in NW New Jersey and Lower Hudson Valley (north of the Tappen Zee Bridge) on Wednesday. However if the front slips a little further south, we may be able get enough cold air down to the coast for snow or a mix. This is all VERY early and is subject to change. But this is the scenerio, that I believe is most likely right now.

On 12/23 -12/24 there is a potential for a major storm to develop along the east coast as the northern branch of the jet allow more amplification in the Eastern US and shortwave energy from the southern branch moves eastward. It’s no use trying to figure out the details at this time as there will probably be changes on each run of the models. However the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF close off a 500mb low and develop a storm in the southern states and move it northeastward. Whether we get alot of rain or snow, highly depends on what track this storm takes and how much cold air is around at the time. We’ll just have to wait and see on future runs.

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The weather pattern looks benign at this point. There will be a strong cold front passing through the area on Thursday with some snow showers or flurries Thursday night and Friday morning possible. There was a potential of a storm developing along this front, but that looks like it will be too far to our north and east. Friday will be a very cold day with temps not getting above freezing. But the airmass will moderate over the weekend and next week looks mild, with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Some of the models are showing another storm late next week, but it’s looks to be taking an inland track with just rain for our area at this time.

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The 12z models shifted the precip shield of this storm east today and the 18z models continued that trend. After looking at satellite imagery and radar trends, I’ve decided to cancel the snowfall amounts from earlier. This storm doesn’t appear to be getting it’s act together very quickly as rainfall appears more showery over Virginia and NC than steady. It is also moving towards NE, which means much of it may pass to our south. There is a chance of rain or snow showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, may come this far north, but I don’t expect any accumulation anywhere. Most areas NW of NYC will probably remain dry.