Not much has changed this morning. Still looks like the storm will be too far our east to give most of tri-state area any significant snowfall. The GFS wants to bring back more precip further west but it may be overdoing this as it appears best lift will be over further S & E. I have a snowfall map. Snowfall amounts will mainly be on grassy areas:

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5267/snowfallmapye2.png

Basically this event on Monday will be a very minor event for most of the tri-state area. 12z NAM and GFS trended east with the storm and 18z runs showed little change. At this time, it appears that this storm will be too far east and too progressive to give us any significant precip around here. Another shortwave or upstream kicker will prevent the trough in the east going neutral, then negative in time to allow this storm to turn up the coast. Here’s what I expect as of now:

I expect precip to arrive later tomorrow night as light rain for coastal areas, including NYC and LI, then it should change to wet snow during the morning hours on Monday, before ending by early afternoon. I expect accumulations, mainly on grassy areas, to be less than 1″ for NYC, Southern Westchester, and Nassau County. Western Suffolk and SW Conn may see around an inch, while Eastern Suffolk and SE Conn. could see 1″ – 2″ as they will be closest to the storm. Snow will be slushy and most pavements will be wet.

Everywhere else, I expect a very light snow or just flurries, possibly mixed with raindrops when it starts tomorrow night and ending Monday morning. I expect no more than a dusting or a slushy coating in some spots.

There is still time for things to change and I will update if there are changes.

I will posting my thoughts and forecasts here from time to time here about the significant weather events for the NY/NJ/Conn tri-state area.

Our first potential for a winter storm this season will be on Sunday night into Monday. As of now, it is too hard for me to forecast snowfall amounts as the models continue to flip back and forth on the storm track and the synoptics. After yesterday’s trend closer to the coast, the models last night shifted back east again, keeping most significant precip east of our area. This morning 6z runs have now shifted back west. However, this storm doesn’t appear that it will give us a significant snowfall at this time, as precip types will be an issue and it will be a quick mover. I will have an update later.