Forecast Amounts for tonight here:

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/3822/sundaypmyf7.png

The latest runs of the GFS, NAM, SUNY MM5, have shifted the inverted surface trof axis down to Southern NJ for tonight event. The heaviest amount of snow should occur along and north of that trof axis. For those that don’t understand that, you see how I’ve illstruated here from the latest 6z NAM at 24hrs and 30hrs:

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/5015/namp06024luq0.gif

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/2130/namp06030lev5.gif

Although the NAM and MM5 is shows more than a .25″ liquid in Central and Southern NJ, I suspect this may be overdone and the GFS shows far about .10 or less here. So I’ve comprised expecting about .10″ to .20″ across Southern NJ and .05″ to .15″ across SE PA and Central NJ. With snowfall ratios tonight going down from 15:1 to 20:1, I’m expecting to 1″ to 3″ in general places. It is possible that a few spots get up to 4″.The rest of the area will see lighter snowfall amounts as they will be farther away from the surface trof. The models do not show any precip for NYC, LI and areas to the North and East tonight. But decent 700mb Omega on the NAM suggest precip, perhaps unmeasurable, can still could occur. Some very light snow or flurries is possible with little or no accumulation.If the models shift the trof axis back north today, than heavier snowfall amounts, will likely shift back north as well. I don’t really expect this to happen, but this will still be watched.

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