Much of tri-state area, escaped this winter without seeing a significant snowfall. Parts of NW NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and CT, saw no accumulation. The reasons for this, were discussed in last two posts, before this one. However, now you see it happening on water vapor loop this morning. The drier area dropping over the Great Lakes and Northeast, is strong confluence flow behind associated with a lobe of polar vortex. This is currently  shearing and suppressing this storm to the south and east of us.

As this happening another bitterly cold airmass coming into region. Tonight the NAM show temperatures possible dropping into single digits over NYC and NW suburbs tonight, with a northerly flow. New record lows could be set again, tomorrow morning. Especially at the airports.