With a southerly flow, today will be warmer and more humid for Tri-State area. Temperatures will rise into middle to upper 80s this afternoon, away from the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along trough axis approach from the west this afternoon. Best chances for showers and thunderstorm will be north and west of New York City, where lift and instability will be higher. Model forecast soundings show sufficient SBCAPE for thunderstorms to become strong this afternoon. However, weak vertical shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm organization and intensity. Also with the weak flow and PWAT near 1.80″, any thunderstorms will be moving slowly and capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Which could result in some flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish tonight. As the trough axis shifts east and instability decreases after sunset.

Tomorrow we will see more sunshine. But it will not be as warm and humid. A weak cold front will slowly pass through the area. Temperatures will still take run at 80 or above, with a deep NW flow and steepening lapse rates. A strong cap aloft will likely suppress shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Later tomorrow night into Thursday could get more stormy. A potent shortwave and wave low of pressure that will producing severe weather over Central Plains today and Ohio Valley tomorrow, will moving across our region. There are some models differences on the exact timing and track of this wave through our area. If this wave, tracks over Central or Southern New Jersey, it could give many of us period of heavy rain with embedded, elevated thunderstorms. A track further north than that, would put more of the in warmer, unstable airmass and vertical wind shear. Which would support strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, much the guidance favors the southern track. But as the begins develop over Central Plains today, this could still be some changes. Stay tuned for another update late tonight or early tomorrow.