After a decent weekend and beautiful day today, warmer and humid airmass will start to return to the Tri-State area tomorrow. As southwesterly flow develop throughout the day. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, away from the south-facing coasts with dewpoints in middle to upper 60s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible with daytime heating and instability. Wednesday will be even more humid with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cold front moving through region late in afternoon or evening. NAM and GFS forecast sounding show with  1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE 500-700mb lapse rates 6.5 C/km to 7.0 C/km. Which supports some thunderstorms to become strong or severe, with strong winds and large hail. However weak shear values suggest thunderstorms will pulse up and down.

After this cold front, pass a slightly cooler and less humid airmass will once again be over region for the rest of the week. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s with sunshine. More humidity and thunderstorms may return again, on Sunday as another frontal system approaching the region. However, the big story this summer seems to be lack of extreme or prolonged heat waves.  This has been due to the reloading of strong ridge over NE Pacific or West Coast causing more troughs to dig into East. Long-range guidance continues to show this pattern continuing for the next couple of weeks, at least.