Update: As of 11am EDT, the National Hurricane Center upgrades Bertha to catergory 1 hurricane with 80mph maximum winds. No other changes from below.

Tropical Storm Bertha became better organized and stronger overnight as shear decreased enough for more thunderstorms to wrap around it’s now closed surface center.  According to the National Hurricane Center,  maximum sustained winds have increased to 70mph and the central minimum pressure has fallen to 999mb. Bertha is now over very warm water and in an environment with less shear and dry air impeding further development. So it is likely to become a category 1 hurricane sometime today or tonight.

Bertha has also turned north and will gradually turn to the northeast into the open Atlantic, ahead of upper-level trough over the Eastern US.  As the model consensus has been showing for days. The only impact from Bertha in tri-state area will likely be some high surf and rip currents along the shores as it makes it closest approach to our area sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then Bertha is expected to weaken and become a non-tropical system as it moves into the cooler waters of the North Atlantic, later this week.