Some heat is making comeback this week, as ridge builds over the Eastern US. This ridge has been enhanced by Cristobal. Which is now a category 1 hurricane just northwest of the Bahamas and will recurve out to sea this week. Today we saw sunny skies with highs in the middle to upper 80s through much of the local tri-state area. Tomorrow looks pretty same, except a stronger south to southwest flow may keep areas near the shore a little cooler tomorrow.

On Wednesday a cold front will be across the region, during the afternoon. The flow will turn more west to southwest, pumping in more heat and humidity. Temperatures with enough sunshine could get to or above 90F degress for highs on Wednesday for much of NJ and NYC area. Some showers and thunderstorms may form along this cold front. The NAM shows very unstable airmass away from the coast, with MLCAPE values between 1500 J/kg and 2500 J/kg. Shear is also marginal enough for threat of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Other models such as GFS and ECMWF have the atmosphere more capped and stable, keep coverage of showers and thunderstorm very low. It should become clearer tomorrow if we are looking at threat of severe weather.

After this cold passes through Wednesday night, a cooler less humid airmass will be ushered in again. Higher temperatures return to near normal, in the lower 80s for most spots. Heat and humidity may try to return over the Labor Day weekend. As a ridge starting building east again. However, a frontal system approaching the west, may keep unsettled weather conditions for the weekend. At this time, it doesn’t look a like complete washout, and I don’t advise to change any plans yet. But there will probably be some showers or thunderstorms, at some point. Model guidance shows different timing of this system’s warm and cold front moving through the area. This should become clearer as we draw closer.