Today like another pleasant day with a mixture of sunshine and clouds and east winds keep high temperatures in middle to upper 70s. However, the weather becomes more unsettled starting tonight. Low pressure currently over Carolinas, will slowly move northeastward through Wednesday.  There are some model differences handling of this system. But most models keep this keep this low far enough south and east, to spare most of the region any heavy rainfall. At this time, I expect clouds to increase across the entire region tonight. Some periods of light rain, are possible for the coastal sections, especially over Long Island and Central New Jersey starting late tonight through tomorrow night. Areas farther northwest, will remain dry. I will continue to be monitor this low with future model runs and some nowcasting.  Just a 50 mile shift west will bring more significant rainfall. On the hand, a 50 mile shift further east might mean more sunshine tomorrow, for parts of the area.

Regardless the small differences, there will tight pressure gradient between this low and a strong high pressure over Maine or Nova Scotia. East to northeast winds will increasing to 10mph to 20mph with gusts 25mph near the coast by tomorrow and persist into Wednesday. With a full moon tomorrow, some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion is possible for multiple high tide cycles. Especially along the New Jersey shore and around Western Long Island sound. The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a coastal flood statement for this reason.  Important to note, that this isn’t a powerful storm and any impacts along the coastline, look to be minimal. Strong or damaging winds are not expected out this storm.

Clouds should break for some sunshine later on Wednesday afternoon as this low begins consolidated and track into the Atlantic. Easterly winds, will only allow high temperatures in there middle to upper 70s. Another low pressure system will be track to over the Great Lakes Wednesday night. The warm front associated with this system  through area on late Wednesday night and early Thursday with some isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. If this warm front moves north, as the GFS and the ECMWF to a lesser extent shows, much of the Tri-State area could be in the warm sector with more humidity and high temperatures in middle to upper 80s on Thursday. On the other hand, if the warm front stays further south, we could be stuck with an onshore flow and more clouds. Right now, I will lean towards more reliable GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Regardless, a strong cold front will approach the area with some showers and thunderstorms likely by Thursday night.

Some uncertainty afterwards, as the ECMWF is much slower with the cold front passing through the area. The GFS would much cooler and drier for Friday and Saturday.  While the ECMWF keep more showers and thunderstorms into for Friday and Saturday, with a wave forming along frontal boundary. The GFS might be too progressive and ECMWF might to be strong with the east coast ridge at the end of the week. Regardless of either solution, below normal temperatures look likely starting next weekend and continuing into much of next week. As most guidance shows a strong West Coast ridge, causes a large trough over the Central and Eastern United States.