Many of us, especially if we are up past midnight, we’ll likely see our first snowflakes tonight for the upcoming winter season An upper-level disturbance (shortwave trough) and wave low pressure form well off the coast will produce some light precipitation area tonight and early tomorrow morning. The low offshore will develop to late for our area to have more significant impacts. But this low will help transport some moisture off the Atlantic into region.  Lifting ahead of shortwave trough with be increasing, due to a strengthening mid-level jet streak and mid-level frontogenesis, will cause light rain and snow throughout the area tonight.

Precipitation will start as wet snow or a brief mix of snow and rain for the inland areas north and west of New York City this evening. For coastal locations, temperatures aloft at 925 mb (2,500 ft) will be initially be warm enough for rain. Then as colder air will continue filtering into region overnight that rain should mix and change to wet snow before tapering off around daybreak. As temperatures drop into lower or middle 30s. Inland areas north and west of New York City, could start see snow accumulate on untreated roads, car tops, grassy areas, and other colder surfaces. A coating to 1″ is possible for these areas. For New York City and other coastal locations, surface temperatures will only drop into middle to upper 30s, before precipitation ends. So very little if any accumulation is expected, for these areas.

This entire system move out early tomorrow morning. Expect skies to clear for sunshine. But with a cold airmass in place, high temperatures will only get into lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and cold as with high temperatures only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.