First batch of steady rain is moving through early this morning.  Rain will become lighter and intermittent late this morning and early this afternoon. Before another batch of steadier and heavier rain arrives later this afternoon with a weak triple-point low passing just northwest of the area. The warm front with low, to push from SE to NW this afternoon, causing temperatures to rising through 40s and into 50s this afternoon. Some parts of Long Island and New Jersey Shore may briefly get into the warm sector with temperatures in the lower 60s.  Before a strong cold front from west approaches this evening. A strong southwesterly LLJ, will be passing overhead this evening. This will enhance lift and moisture along the cold front coming and cause more rain, heavy at times over the Tri-State area.

Winds late this afternoon and evening will increase to 15mph to 25mph with higher gusts up to 35mph, near the coast. An inversion layer around 925mb is forecast to keep much stronger winds will the low-level jet from mixing down to surface. However, elevated instability will be on the increase tonight in the warm sector. This can produce some isolated thunderstorms that may contain wind gusts over 50mph. Especially over parts of Long Island and the New Jersey coast. Rain and isolated thunderstorms should end, after the cold front passage later tonight.

Coldest air of the fall season will arrive later tonight. This is some unusually cold air for the middle of November. This type of airmass is more what you expect in late December or January.  Despite lots of sunshine, 850mb temperatures decreasing to -16C will keep temperatures mostly in middle 20s to lower 30s tomorrow.  Wednesday morning temperatures may in the lower 20s or even the teens in across over much of the area.  Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday may as much as 20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Southwest winds will allow temperatures to rise back into 40s on Thursday. Before another cold shot of air arrives on Friday and last into Saturday. High temperatures will likely be upper 30s to lower 40s. However, it also looks mainly dry. As the flow becomes too progressive for trough amplification or northern and southern streams to phase along the east coast.A moderating trend will begin Sunday again, as trough start dig over Central US and ridge start build over the East Coast. Temperatures may once again to return near or above normal going into early next week. The next storm system during this period will likely track to well to our west and bring only rainfall to our region.

Many of us, especially if we are up past midnight, we’ll likely see our first snowflakes tonight for the upcoming winter season An upper-level disturbance (shortwave trough) and wave low pressure form well off the coast will produce some light precipitation area tonight and early tomorrow morning. The low offshore will develop to late for our area to have more significant impacts. But this low will help transport some moisture off the Atlantic into region.  Lifting ahead of shortwave trough with be increasing, due to a strengthening mid-level jet streak and mid-level frontogenesis, will cause light rain and snow throughout the area tonight.

Precipitation will start as wet snow or a brief mix of snow and rain for the inland areas north and west of New York City this evening. For coastal locations, temperatures aloft at 925 mb (2,500 ft) will be initially be warm enough for rain. Then as colder air will continue filtering into region overnight that rain should mix and change to wet snow before tapering off around daybreak. As temperatures drop into lower or middle 30s. Inland areas north and west of New York City, could start see snow accumulate on untreated roads, car tops, grassy areas, and other colder surfaces. A coating to 1″ is possible for these areas. For New York City and other coastal locations, surface temperatures will only drop into middle to upper 30s, before precipitation ends. So very little if any accumulation is expected, for these areas.

This entire system move out early tomorrow morning. Expect skies to clear for sunshine. But with a cold airmass in place, high temperatures will only get into lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and cold as with high temperatures only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.