Another winter storm will approach the area late Sunday and Monday. This storm while not huge, can still make for tough commute to work on Monday morning.

One low will head into Ohio and a secondary low will develop near New Jersey. With an artic airmass already in place, everyone will start as snow. However, the mid-level lows including the 850mb low are gradually trending north with this storm. Including the 850mb, which almost every track into Pennsylvania. Models soundings show a warm nose between 800mb and 900mb early Monday morning. This could lead to mix and change over with sleet for parts of Northeast New Jersey, New York City metro area and Long Island. The shortwave through for this system continues to trend more amplified. This will support the primary low in Western PA before transferring to coast. The more sleet mixes in the lower end of totals we are likely to see.

If the 850mb and surface lows track farther north like the GFS and UKMET suggest today. More places quicker changeover from snow to sleet/freezing rain then plain rain. If the cold air holds out longer, and there is little mixing with sleet, higher snowfall totals may be realized. After new guidance comes in tonight, I may update this forecast, if they are any significant changes.