After the MJO/tropical weakened during the last week of February, the pacific pattern changed to -PNA pattern. The west ridge retrograded into NE Pacific. However, this also kept the EPO negative and support for a cross-polar flow into US. So the first five days features wintry threats. Including one that gave many parts of the 4″ to 8″ of snow on Thursday, March 5th. We have now finally much warmer temperatures today and for much of this week.Well, enjoy it, because it now looks the MJO will be picking up later this month.. Model forecasts are for the MJO to progress and become very strong into between phases 7 and 8. If we reach phases 8, this support a cooler and stormier pattern to return around or after March 20th:

The +PDO still looks favorable for more -EPO/+PNA pattern to continue to reload into early Spring. The -QBO continues to fall as the  February value was -28.62. This could lead to more planetary waves impacting the the polar vortex. So even if MJO or tropical forcing doesn’t last long, the +PNA (west coast ridge) will likely return and there are some signs of the NAO may go negative for period as well. As we get later in March, climatology favors less snow for the coastal plain. However, the potential for anomalous pattern to show up again, we can’t rule out entirely another moderate or significant snowfall threat for even the coast. Stay tuned