After a beautiful weekend, that featured the first 80 degree weather for local area. Some nasty weather is on the way for tomorrow. Fortunately, this storm is just a nuisance for the most part. Still some details for you to be prepared for:

Rainfall:  As a warm front with with a wave low approaches, rain will slowly overspread from the southwest the late tonight. A 50kt+ southeasterly low-level jet and a plume of sub-tropical of moisture will provide ample lift and moisture rain to be heavy at times, during the morning and early afternoon hours on Monday. Forecast sounding show a stable airmass during this time frame. So thunderstorms are not expected. Rain will taper off later in the afternoon. As the best forcing with low-level jet starts to shift northeast of the Tri-State area.  A cold front may cause a few more showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night. A widespread 1.00″- 1.50″ of rainfall is expected late tonight and tomorrow with locally heavier amounts possible. Some ponding of water in typical poor-drainage or low-lying areas is possible. However, with lack of any significant rainfall recently, more serious flash or river flooding is not anticipated.

Winds: 850mb winds will be running between 50-60kts tomorrow morning and early afternoon. A stable airmass does not support these winds to mix down. However, there could be wind gusts between 30mph and 40mph with the rainfall. Especially near the coast. Also any thunderstorm will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts tomorrow night with the cold front. This is discussed more in the severe weather section below.

Tidal flooding. With the new moon this weekend and  the east to southeast flow tomorrow, there could be some minor coastal flooding at high tides tomorrow. Particularly around New York Harbor, the south shores of Long Island and the New Jersey shore. Tides could be 1 to 1 1/2 feet above normal.

Severe Weather: The storm prediction center has issued marginal and slight risks for severe thunderstorms. A cold front associated with this system will move across the area tomorrow night.  A deeper southwesterly flow just above the surface, will generate more elevated instability, ahead of this front. More rainfall from more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will possible tomorrow night. Any thunderstorm will capable producing heavy rain and gusty winds. But are unlikely to reach severe levels with the warm front remaining south of NYC. Over parts of Central and Southern New Jersey some clearing may take place later tomorrow afternoon. This could atmosphere to destabilize further for stronger thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts.