For early this week, the weather changed much from what was discussed in previous post . After some sunshine this morning, upper-level disturbance swing through the area, will cause more clouds mix in during the afternoon hours, with some widely-scattered showers popping up. Temperatures should rise in the lower 60s this afternoon. Skies should clear this evening for the Yankees vs Rays game at Yankee Stadium.  Tuesday should be dry, with high temperatures in the middle 60s. Wednesday could be warmest day of the week, with W/NW winds and 850mb temperatures near 8C, causing high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s around the New York City area.

Latest runs the GFS model have trend closer with the coastal storm Thursday into Friday. If correct, some heavy rain and strong winds will be occur for parts of the area. However, all other models  keeping this storm farther south. The GFS shows a blocking pattern over Southeast Canada causing the northern and southern streams disturbances to phase along the East Coast. While the other models show more progression with a fast pacific jet. At this time, I’m leaning towards the further south and east solutions. But I will still monitor it carefully this week.. Even if this storm does miss us, there could still be some scattered showers with the upper-level low or northern stream disturbance moving over the region.

Model guidance showing a ridge building over the East, next weekend or next week If this correct, we could been for longer stretch of warm, dry weather. Temperatures could be well into 70s or lower 80s during this period. Fingers crossed.