The high resolution models show a pre-frontal and shortwave trough triggering this complex of showers and thunderstorms very late this afternoon or early this evening. The lack of larger-scale ascent or dynamics today, makes a widespread/organized severe event unlikely. But the latest NAM and HRRR 0-6km shear increasing over 30kts and 1500> J/kg of SBCAPE and some steep low-level lapse rates, over parts of Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. This could result in some localized/isolated strong-severe t-storms, in those areas at least. The main threats would be damaging winds, large hail. Some localized flash flooding is possible with pwats over an inch. But these t-storms will be moving at steady pace, as the mid-level flow now looks like it will be a little stronger.

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