The high resolution models show a pre-frontal and shortwave trough triggering this complex of showers and thunderstorms very late this afternoon or early this evening. The lack of larger-scale ascent or dynamics today, makes a widespread/organized severe event unlikely. But the latest NAM and HRRR 0-6km shear increasing over 30kts and 1500> J/kg of SBCAPE and some steep low-level lapse rates, over parts of Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. This could result in some localized/isolated strong-severe t-storms, in those areas at least. The main threats would be damaging winds, large hail. Some localized flash flooding is possible with pwats over an inch. But these t-storms will be moving at steady pace, as the mid-level flow now looks like it will be a little stronger.

This is all based the condition that we clear and destabilize as much the NAM and HRRR shows mid-upper 80s, with dews 65F> away from the coast this afternoon. This morning, there have been alot clouds and some elevated showers moving through areas, with the warm front pushing northward. If we don’t see enough sunshine, the threat for any strong-severe t-storms is reduced. If these t-storms do form, they will likely weaken as before they reach NYC, Long Island and other coastal areas this evening. Due to the loss of daytime heating and more marine influence with south-southeast winds. Some heavy rainfall and lightning will still be possible with some elevated instability remaining.