High pressure from Canada in building into the region today. Scattered showers with a cold front have pushed south of the region this morning. Clouds are breaking for sunshine this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Which is near normal for this time of year. Winds will be light out the north.

Mostly clear skies and light northeast winds expected for tonight. This will allow for radiational cooling many areas tonight. Low temperatures by sunrise will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in New York City and coastal sections. Lower to middle 20s in the inland areas and the pine barrens.

High pressure over New England will remain in control in our area on Monday. The morning will start out with some sunshine. Then some clouds will increase during afternoon hours, with daytime instability and an easterly flow moistening the low-levels. Clouds will help keep temperatures from rising out of the lower to middle 40s during the afternoon.

High pressure will begin erode away Monday night. The light easterly flow will skies mostly cloudy through the night. Some areas of fog or drizzle may develop during the evening hours. Then a frontal system approaching from the southwest, could trigger a some scattered showers after midnight. Temperatures likely hold steady or slowly fall into into upper 30s to lower 40s through the area.

A cut-off low will track into Great Lakes and push a warm front into region on Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure, will develop along the warm front, off the Delmarva and track northeast into New England by Tuesday night. These systems will cause more cloudiness and periods of rain across the region on Tuesday.

 

There are some discrepancies on model guidance on how much rain will fall in parts of the region–due to some subsidence on Tuesday. But they show a strengthening low-level jet to between 30kt and 40kts and precipitate water values over 1.00″, with the warm front and secondary wave of low pressure. These features mean more lift and moisture for moderate to heavy rain at times, during the afternoon and evening.

A cold front extending from the cut-off low over Great Lakes will move slowly through the region with more periods of rain later Tuesday night and into at least Wednesday morning. Lifting from strengthening middle to upper-level jet could enhance more moderate to heavy rain, during this period, as well. Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ are possible for parts of the region, for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday may actually occur during the overnight or early morning hours. Temperatures may remain steady or slow rise through the 40s during much of the day Tuesday. Then rise into 50s during Tuesday night, as the warm front moves across the region. Finally, temperatures may fall back into 40s on Wednesday afternoon, as the cold front passes through the region.

This entire system should move east of the region by Wednesday night. Another high pressure area from Canada will build into region. This will causes skies to clear and colder air with gusty northwest winds will rush into region. Temperatures will fall down into the 30s or lower 40s across the region overnight. Mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions are expected during the day Thursday. With downslope winds, high temperatures are still likely to be somewhat above normal; in the upper 40s to lower 50s.