Mainly tranquil weather is expected Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. More unsettled weather is likely with some showers and thunderstorms in the region on Thursday and Friday. But will weather conditions improve for Memorial Day weekend?  Check for more forecast details for each day this below.

Monday through Wednesday

High pressure builds in from northwest for Monday. Clouds will mix sunshine at times, but no rain is expected.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s and light northerly winds. It will remain dry and comfortable this evening with partly cloudy skies.

Then more clouds will stream northward from a wave low pressure over Lower Mid-Atlantic region. An inverted trough extending northeast from this wave, may produce a few light showers or sprinkles in the region late tonight and Tuesday morning. But most of the rainfall with this system will stay well to the south. Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 50s with winds turning to northeast. Later Tuesday afternoon, clouds may begin to break for more sunshine as the low pressure passes to the south. But onshore winds should keep high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s.

On Wednesday, high pressure from the northeast will build into the region, causing clouds to break for more sunshine. But onshore winds out of the southeast will likely keep high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s for most of the region.

Thursday and Friday

On Thursday, another wave of low pressure and a warm front will start lifting northward out of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region.  This will lead to more cloudy skies and showers in the local region on Thursday, but heavy rainfall isn’t expected at this time. Temperatures will be warming up into the upper 60s to lower 70s, as the flow becomes more southern.

On Friday, a larger frontal system and upper-level trough will be moving through region with more abundant forcing, moisture, and instability ahead of it. Thus, more numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are likely. There could be also some risk for strong to severe thunderstorms, depending on timing of the systems cold front and the amount of instability present. Temperatures could approach 80, before cold front arrives late in the day.  

Memorial Day Weekend

There is some uncertainty with the forecast for Memorial Day weekend. The ECMWF model shows the cold front and upper-level trough moving offshore, which will allow for high pressure and upper-level ridging to build over Northeast US. If this happens, it will be mainly dry with a warming trend each day with high temperatures.

However, the GFS model shows a cut-off low forming over the Ohio Valley and causing the frontal boundary to linger over the East Coast. If this occurs more unsettled weather with occasional showers and thunderstorms will be around each day. But not necessarily, any washouts.

At this time, ensemble guidance for both models suggest a more progressive trough and cold front. Thus warmer and drier conditions are now favored for much of the weekend. I will keep you posted this week, if that changes.