An arctic frontal boundary will be moving slowly south through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this weekend. A couple waves of low pressure will be moving along this front and will bringing periodic precipitation to tri-state area this weekend. It should be remain mild enough, for mostly rain to fall. But as it gradually turns colder, snow, sleet, and perhaps some freezing rain may mix in times, across higher elevations of NW NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley and Conn. Particulary on Sat night and especially pm Sun. night. Some minor accumulations of snow and ice are possible in these areas.

On Monday, a stronger low pressure system will moving along the front and will bring more significant precip. to our area. The track of storm is bit uncertain at this time, as the 0z GFS and GGEM show the storm passing to our south and the 0z ECMWF and UKMET pass to our north. At this time, I will assume a track in between that goes right over the area. Therefore, mainly rain – perhaps heavy at times, is likely throughout the tri-state area, during the day Monday Then on Monday night as the low moves offshore, colder air will begin to rush in behind it and rain may mix or to change to snow or flurries before ending, across the entire area. No significant accumulations of snow and ice are expected at this time, but I will continue to monitor.

After this storm, it will be colder and drier next week. There will probably be a storm developing along or off the east coast between the 19th and 21th. At this time, most of models and ensembles take it out to sea, but I will continue to watch it for a track closer to the coast.

Overall, the pattern change to more winter-like weather will start occurring this weekend. It should stay colder with a slight moderation at times. This should increase our chances for some snowfall across the area in the next couple of weeks.

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Yes, the pattern change is coming, but not this week. The cold air that will come tomorrow and Wed, will be transient. There is chance of some snow showers tomorrow night as a weak disturbance moves through the area. But that should be it. It will turn much milder again later this week.

It looks like the longwave trof will that will come trough this area on the 15th will persist into the following weekend across the Central and Eastern US, according to the latest NCEP Ensemble Mean (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html) We will also have a +PNA. So this does appear to be a true pattern change. It may get very cold around from 1/17 – 1/20, with high temps 5 to 10 degrees below normal. By 1/21 temps may begin to moderate, but temps will only be closer to normal. Another reinforcing shot of cold air is likely come the following week.

The latest GFS and ECWMF show a couple of waves of low pressure moving up along the artic frontal boundary that will move slowly offshore during the middle of next week. We will see what future runs show.

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There will be another storm this weekend heading towards the Great Lakes. This storm will have mild air ahead of it, to bring the area mostly rain to the tri-state area on New Years Day. Although, there may be a brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain in the higher elevations NW of NYC on New Year’s Eve night.

High tempatures should remain a few degrees above normal throughout the period. At this time, there are no signs of any artic air or snowstorms for the next 2 or 3 weeks.

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