The models have trended to bring the cold front moving through the area early Tuesday further to the south and now show low pressure development well south and east of this area. If this true will have a chance of a few showers early Tues, before it turns drier and colder the rest of the day. However, I’m not ready to accept, as I suspect the models may be lowering the heights over the over the east coast too much, as the SE Ridge has been unusually strong so far this month. So at this time, I still low pressure to form over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning and quickly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast probably just south LI by Tuesday evening. Rain will fall on Tuesday, with a possiblity of mix or changeover to wet snow before it end Tuesday night, as the low begins to deepen offshore and wraps cold air behind it. I will be looking at future runs of the models this weekend to see if the trends continue to show the former solution.

As for 12/22 and beyond, it is becoming increasing certain what is going to happen around here. The models inconsistent in there solutions for the potential major storm around during this period, and now show several weaker systems that could effect our area. One system could into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at end of the week, bringing us mainly rain. Another system could develop along the east coast closer to X-mas and bring us some rain and/or snow. And perhaps another system a couple days after that one. Until they show more consistent solutions, ( for about 3 runs or so) I can’t believe anything at this time, except that period looks potentially colder and stormier. Alot here may also depend on what happens with 12/19 storm and how they handle that one.

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Not much has changed on my thinking for the storm mid-week which looks like it may come a day earlier on 12/19. The models have been waffling a somewhat on their solutions since yesterday, but overall still expect a wave of low pressure to form along the front that will stall to our south and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. I don’t believe the storm will going to cutting through the Great Lakes as 18z GFS from yesterday showed. Precipitation looks like it will be rain across most of the area on late Monday night and Tuesday, but as the low pressure moves off the coast, and possibly deepens as shown by the 0z ECWMF last night and 12z GFS yesterday, colder air may come behind storm and change the rain to snow or flurries before ending late Tues. or Tuesday night, especially NW of NYC. At this time, this doesn’t appear to be a signficant snowfall for this area.

The threat for a major storm producing alot of rain or snow still exists on 12/23 (maybe as early as 12/22 per 0z EC and 6z GFS?) but the models have yet to be consistent on a track or scenerio for this event and probably won’t for sometime.

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The rest of this week and early next week will be mild with high temps in the upper 50’s to around 60. So any precip coming through this period will be rain. However a high pressure from Northern Canada will start moving into the Midwest and then the Northeast next week, ushering in somewhat colder air, as the pacific jet begins to split and buckle the flow from NW to SE.

On Tuesday, the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF shows a cold front moving through our area and stall to our south, near the Mason-Dixon line. Temps will drop from the 50’s early to the 40’s by end of day and into the 30’s at night. On Wednesday, the front will being to move back to north as a wave low pressure forms along it and moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air overunning the cooler air cause precipation to develop ahead of this front over the are late Tuesday At this time it appears to ME, that it will be remain warm enough for a cold rain along the coast, including NYC and surrounding suburbs, while some snow and/or ice could fall in NW New Jersey and Lower Hudson Valley (north of the Tappen Zee Bridge) on Wednesday. However if the front slips a little further south, we may be able get enough cold air down to the coast for snow or a mix. This is all VERY early and is subject to change. But this is the scenerio, that I believe is most likely right now.

On 12/23 -12/24 there is a potential for a major storm to develop along the east coast as the northern branch of the jet allow more amplification in the Eastern US and shortwave energy from the southern branch moves eastward. It’s no use trying to figure out the details at this time as there will probably be changes on each run of the models. However the 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF close off a 500mb low and develop a storm in the southern states and move it northeastward. Whether we get alot of rain or snow, highly depends on what track this storm takes and how much cold air is around at the time. We’ll just have to wait and see on future runs.

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