The weather pattern looks benign at this point. There will be a strong cold front passing through the area on Thursday with some snow showers or flurries Thursday night and Friday morning possible. There was a potential of a storm developing along this front, but that looks like it will be too far to our north and east. Friday will be a very cold day with temps not getting above freezing. But the airmass will moderate over the weekend and next week looks mild, with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Some of the models are showing another storm late next week, but it’s looks to be taking an inland track with just rain for our area at this time.

Back to tristate weather:

www.tristateweatherboard.com

The 12z models shifted the precip shield of this storm east today and the 18z models continued that trend. After looking at satellite imagery and radar trends, I’ve decided to cancel the snowfall amounts from earlier. This storm doesn’t appear to be getting it’s act together very quickly as rainfall appears more showery over Virginia and NC than steady. It is also moving towards NE, which means much of it may pass to our south. There is a chance of rain or snow showers late tonight and tomorrow morning, may come this far north, but I don’t expect any accumulation anywhere. Most areas NW of NYC will probably remain dry.

Not much has changed this morning. Still looks like the storm will be too far our east to give most of tri-state area any significant snowfall. The GFS wants to bring back more precip further west but it may be overdoing this as it appears best lift will be over further S & E. I have a snowfall map. Snowfall amounts will mainly be on grassy areas:

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5267/snowfallmapye2.png