High pressure will gradually shift to the northeast Friday night and Saturday. Clouds will increase on Friday night. An amplifying ridge over the Western United States, will cause shortwave energy to dig and form into closed upper-level low over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. This will cause a double-barbell surface low-pressure system to organize over the Eastern US on Saturday. A deep southerly flow will transport a plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic into our area. Most of the model guidance agrees on a widespread heavy rainfall throughout the area starting during on Saturday and continue into Saturday night. Saturday will feature mostly cloudy and skies with some intermittent rain and drizzle breaking out from southwest to northwest across the region, during the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. A strengthening southerly low-level jet and precipitable water values approaching two inches will cause rain to become steadier and heavier at times, late in the afternoon and early Saturday night for the region. Some of the model guidance shows some elevated instability. So there will there could also be isolated thunderstorm as well. Rainfall totals in excess of 1 or 2 inches are possible and could be enough to cause some flooding in poor drainage or low-lying areas. As surface low pressure and dynamics shift north of the area, rain will begin taper off to lighter showers late Saturday night.
Forecasts
Warm, Middle 70s Today…Coastal Storm Stays South for Thursday and Friday
Yesterday temperatures were warmer than expected due very dry airmass and lack of foliage. Highs reached the lower 70s for much New Jersey, New York City and the Lower Hudson Valley Today will be even warmer with light northwest downslope winds and mixing up to 800mb. Temperatures will get into middle to upper 70s with very low humidity/dewpoints for the same areas again. Northwest winds are light enough to allow for sea-breeze to develop this afternoon. This may keep temperatures several degrees cooler over parts of Long Island, near the New Jersey shore and along the Connecticut coast. But should still be a very nice afternoon overall. A backdoor cold front will cause temperatures to drop back into 50s early this evening from west to east.
Tomorrow will attention will turn to the coastal storm I’ve been discussing. The GFS has come more in line without models keep this low further south and east region of the region. The result will be more cloud cover and onshore winds on keeping temperatures from getting out 60s or 50s tomorrow and Friday. But no other impacts from this storm are expected in tri-state area. This low should move east of the area on Saturday morning and clouds should break for some sunshine in the afternoon.
Model guidance continues a ridge building into Eastern US, after this low moves out. On Sunday will resume our warming trend with temperatures getting back into middle to upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures could rise into lower to middle 80s, away from the coast, during the first half next week, before cold arrives with some showers and thunderstorms later on Tuesday or Wednesday. This could front doesn’t look strong though. Model guidance ridge building back in the east with more very warm temperatures later half of the week.
Warmer Wednesday and Watching Coastal Storm for Thursday/Friday
For early this week, the weather changed much from what was discussed in previous post . After some sunshine this morning, upper-level disturbance swing through the area, will cause more clouds mix in during the afternoon hours, with some widely-scattered showers popping up. Temperatures should rise in the lower 60s this afternoon. Skies should clear this evening for the Yankees vs Rays game at Yankee Stadium. Tuesday should be dry, with high temperatures in the middle 60s. Wednesday could be warmest day of the week, with W/NW winds and 850mb temperatures near 8C, causing high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s around the New York City area.
Latest runs the GFS model have trend closer with the coastal storm Thursday into Friday. If correct, some heavy rain and strong winds will be occur for parts of the area. However, all other models keeping this storm farther south. The GFS shows a blocking pattern over Southeast Canada causing the northern and southern streams disturbances to phase along the East Coast. While the other models show more progression with a fast pacific jet. At this time, I’m leaning towards the further south and east solutions. But I will still monitor it carefully this week.. Even if this storm does miss us, there could still be some scattered showers with the upper-level low or northern stream disturbance moving over the region.
Model guidance showing a ridge building over the East, next weekend or next week If this correct, we could been for longer stretch of warm, dry weather. Temperatures could be well into 70s or lower 80s during this period. Fingers crossed.
Miguel Pierre Weather 