Today’s temperatures rose in the lower 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday high temperatures will also be in lower to middle 60s. As we remain in a mild airmass, in advance of artic blast later this week. We will be in between two systems Tuesday night and Wednesday. A low moving over the Great Lakes and coastal storm moving well southeast of the area. A surface trough extending from the offshore storm and cold front from the Great Lakes low could produce some scattered showers in the Tri-State area, during this time frame.

The models continue to show artic air pouring into the United States mainland this week. For the Tri-state area this will be a little delayed until the end of this week.  A huge blocking ridge developing over Alaska and NW Canada early this week, will the cause a trough with artic air to dump into Rockies and Midwest. This block was enhanced by the remnants of Supper Typhoon Nuri transitioning into the deepest extratropical storm, in the North Pacific, recorded. This trough will then move east, with strong cold front passing through Thursday night. Some light snow and rain is possible with front and upper-level disturbance. Surface temperatures will likely be too warm for any snowfall accumulations. Colder air will follow behind this front later Friday and Saturday.  Temperatures expected to be upper 30s to lower 40s for highs and morning lows in upper 20s to lower 30s. This is not brutal cold. But well below normal for mid-November.

Another low over Great Lakes will be moving toward the east coast on Sunday. A secondary wave of low pressure will also be forming near Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Some precipitation is likely for either or both systems sometime Sunday into next Monday. However, a southeasterly flow with a cold high moving offshore, will likely mean many areas will warm up enough for mostly rainfall.  Behind these systems is another anomalous cold airmass for this time of year. The -EPO ridge will also polar vortex drop over James Bay and an associated trough to dig into the Central and Eastern US. The east-based -NAO cause this trough to remain in place until the end of next week.

The polar vortex begins to lift out and elongate or split, at the end of next week. We will see temperatures moderate to back to normal. Meanwhile, subtropical disturbance will eject out Southwest US later next week. This disturbance could organize into a significant winter storm parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions during the Nov. 20-23 period.  At this time, model or ensemble guidance is not going to resolve the details of this possible system. So I will watch for trends to develop on models through this week and beyond. But with such anomalous high-latitude blocking being forecast, going into late November, the chances for more wintry weather will likely increase.

Today like another pleasant day with a mixture of sunshine and clouds and east winds keep high temperatures in middle to upper 70s. However, the weather becomes more unsettled starting tonight. Low pressure currently over Carolinas, will slowly move northeastward through Wednesday.  There are some model differences handling of this system. But most models keep this keep this low far enough south and east, to spare most of the region any heavy rainfall. At this time, I expect clouds to increase across the entire region tonight. Some periods of light rain, are possible for the coastal sections, especially over Long Island and Central New Jersey starting late tonight through tomorrow night. Areas farther northwest, will remain dry. I will continue to be monitor this low with future model runs and some nowcasting.  Just a 50 mile shift west will bring more significant rainfall. On the hand, a 50 mile shift further east might mean more sunshine tomorrow, for parts of the area.

Regardless the small differences, there will tight pressure gradient between this low and a strong high pressure over Maine or Nova Scotia. East to northeast winds will increasing to 10mph to 20mph with gusts 25mph near the coast by tomorrow and persist into Wednesday. With a full moon tomorrow, some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion is possible for multiple high tide cycles. Especially along the New Jersey shore and around Western Long Island sound. The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has issued a coastal flood statement for this reason.  Important to note, that this isn’t a powerful storm and any impacts along the coastline, look to be minimal. Strong or damaging winds are not expected out this storm.

Clouds should break for some sunshine later on Wednesday afternoon as this low begins consolidated and track into the Atlantic. Easterly winds, will only allow high temperatures in there middle to upper 70s. Another low pressure system will be track to over the Great Lakes Wednesday night. The warm front associated with this system  through area on late Wednesday night and early Thursday with some isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. If this warm front moves north, as the GFS and the ECMWF to a lesser extent shows, much of the Tri-State area could be in the warm sector with more humidity and high temperatures in middle to upper 80s on Thursday. On the other hand, if the warm front stays further south, we could be stuck with an onshore flow and more clouds. Right now, I will lean towards more reliable GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Regardless, a strong cold front will approach the area with some showers and thunderstorms likely by Thursday night.

Some uncertainty afterwards, as the ECMWF is much slower with the cold front passing through the area. The GFS would much cooler and drier for Friday and Saturday.  While the ECMWF keep more showers and thunderstorms into for Friday and Saturday, with a wave forming along frontal boundary. The GFS might be too progressive and ECMWF might to be strong with the east coast ridge at the end of the week. Regardless of either solution, below normal temperatures look likely starting next weekend and continuing into much of next week. As most guidance shows a strong West Coast ridge, causes a large trough over the Central and Eastern United States.