NYC Metro Area Weekend Forecast 11/25/22 – 11/27/22

Happy Friday! This weekend after Thanksgiving will be a mixed bag of weather conditions. Friday will see showers come to end and skies clear later this afternoon and evening. A beautiful day is expected on Saturday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures just above normal. Then rainy conditions are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening. Read below for a more detail forecast breakdown for each day.

Friday

A weak cold front associated with an upper-level trough will move through the region early today. Cloudy skies and showers will linger into early this afternoon. Then clouds will break for some sunshine during the mid-late afternoon hours and winds beging increasing, behind the cold front. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout the area. Light southwest winds between 5 to 15 mph are expected through early this afternoon. Then winds should become more westerly with gusts up to around 25mph later this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight. A chiller airmass with blustery northwest winds move in briefly.  Temperatures will fall through the 40s this evening then into the 30s overnight throughout the region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s in urban NYC metro and in the lower to middle 30s in the suburbs.  Northwest winds will be between 15 to 25mph with gusts up to around 35mph for much of the night.

Saturday

High pressure will be in control on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies and less breezy conditions are expected. The airmass will moderating. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 50s, which area few degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds will be out the the west between 5 to 15 mph with some gusts up to around the 20mph. Beautiful conditions and the vibes will be great.

ECMWF forecast model shows dry conditions with high pressure on Saturday

Dry conditions are expected Saturday night. Skies will remain mostly clear during the evening hours, then some high clouds will begin increasing later in the night, ahead of the next storm system for later Sunday.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for much of the region.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday. A storm system will bring more showers or periods of rain to the NYC metro area during afternoon and evening hours. Some limited sunshine is possible early in the morning, but some showers may begin arriving late in the morning.

A strong southerly low-level jet with this storm system will enhance forcing and moisture in the area. Therefore, some periods of moderate or heavy rain are possible, which could cause some travel issues and minor flooding in poor drainage areas. But rainfall totals overall will be limited by the fast speed of this system through the area. Rain will begin tapering off late on Sunday night.

NAM forecast model showing periods of rain on Sunday afternoon and evening

This storm system will track northwest of the area and push a warm front northward. Temperatures will depend on how far north this front gets. But high temperatures may reach the upper 50s or lower 60s at least in NYC and coastal areas. High temperatures will in lower to middle 50s are more likely further northwest. Southerly winds will increase to 15mph to 25mph and may gust to around 35mph especially near the coast, during the afternoon and evening hours.

Brief Look at Next Week

High pressure will return with mostly sunny skies on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler each day, then warming up again on Wednesday. The chance of rainfall will come with another storm system later Wednesday into Thursday.

Stay tuned for another forecast update here by Sunday evening.

Nice Start to Week, Rain Tuesday & Wednesday

High pressure from Canada in building into the region today. Scattered showers with a cold front have pushed south of the region this morning. Clouds are breaking for sunshine this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Which is near normal for this time of year. Winds will be light out the north.

Mostly clear skies and light northeast winds expected for tonight. This will allow for radiational cooling many areas tonight. Low temperatures by sunrise will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in New York City and coastal sections. Lower to middle 20s in the inland areas and the pine barrens.

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An Early Chill and First Freeze for the Tri-State Area The Next Few Days

A highly amplified ridge over Western North America is causing a trough to deep over Eastern North America. This pattern will transport a cold airmass over the Hudson Bay region to into the Northeast Untied States this weekend. This will not be mid-winter cold. But we will be seeing some cold temperatures that we don’t see often here in October. Some precautions will also be needed to protect growing vegetation this weekend, as a first freeze for parts of the tri-state area is also likely.

During the day Saturday 850mb temperatures will between -3 and -5 degrees Celsius. This will support high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s with mostly sunny skies. A colder airmass will arrive Saturday night with 850mb temperatures between -6 and -9 degrees Celsius with breezy northwest winds. Some interior locations may see their first freeze, as temperatures there drop into lower to middle 30s on Saturday night. Near the coast, temperatures will likely only fall into upper 30s or lower 40s.

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