Tropics

Heavy Rains Tonight for NY Tri-State Area, Hurricane Gonzalo A Threat to Bermuda

Miguel Pierre Flooding, Short-Term, Tropics

Rain has held off for the tri-state most of the day. Warm and breezy conditions remained, and clouds even broke for some sunshine. But that looking at radar now, that is quickly changing.

A large cut-off area of low pressure moving east from the Ohio River Valley will continue to cause rain to spread east over the Tri-state area tonight with some heavy downpours and embedded  thunderstorms. Associated cold front and a strong southeasterly flow with this storm system, will bring an abundant amount of moisture, lift, and some elevated instability. Rainfall totals of 1″ – 2″ are expected for much of the area.  However some training of heavy rains or thunderstorms may also occur and produce heavier rainfall totals, in some spots. Precipitate water values support 1.50″ to 2.00″ suggests very heavy rainfall is possible in a short period of time. The main threat from this system is flash flooding in poor-drainage and low-lying areas. Some heavier showers or thunderstorms may bring down stronger winds aloft, in the form of wind gusts up to 40mph.  But southeast winds off the ocean, will keep surface-based instability on low side. So severe weather is not anticipated in the Tri-state area.

18z HRRR today showing band of heavy rain or thunderstorms moving into the Tri-State area overnight
18z HRRR today showing band of heavy rain or thunderstorms moving into the Tri-State area overnight

As the cold front moves slowly across the region, rain with heavy downpours will be begin to taper from west to east during the day  Parts of Long Island and Connecticut may however see steady and heavy rain into the afternoon hours.   Cooler and drier weather should arrive on Friday and Saturday with temperatures seasonable. An even cooler airmass from Canada, will arrive behind another cold front on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday and early next week, may only be in the lower to middle 50s, even with alot of sunshine. Temperatures on Sunday night may also be fall into the lower 40s or 30s. Some parts of the area may see their first frost or freeze. Especially over Northwest New Jersey and Lower Hudson Valley:

 

12z GFS showing temperatures in the 30s over the tri-state area Sunday night.
12z GFS today showing temperatures in the 30s over the tri-state area Sunday night.

 

Meanwhile Hurricane Gonzalo  became a category 4 hurricane today winds of 130mph as it moves northwest over the Southwest Atlantic. The storm is expected to turn northeast into the open North Atlantic this weekend. However, it may pass very close to Bermuda as major hurricane, before doing that, on Friday.  As of 5pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for Bermuda. Gonzalo weakened slightly to catergory 3 hurricane with 125mph winds. But is forecast to be category 3 hurricane very close to Bermuda at 2pm Friday. High swells, possibly up to 10ft, from Gonzalo will also reach the New Jersey and Long Island shores by Friday night and Saturday. Stay tuned more updates here on this storm through Saturday.

 

Visible image late this afternoon of Hurricane Gonzalo
Visible image late this afternoon of Hurricane Gonzalo

 

Hurricane Odile Slams into Baja California, Edouard Almost A Major Hurricane

Miguel Pierre Tropics

Check out previous posts on Odile and Edouard over the weekend at Tropics.

Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas, MX as major category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 125mph at about 925pm PDT. An automated station on Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind at 89mph and  a 116mph gust, near the time of landfall. Odile has significantly weakened today, while moving inland over Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are now 80mph, as of the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center today. Odile is the strongest hurricane to make a direct hit on the Cabo San Lucas area, and from images today,  appears it had devastated parts of the area. Some major damage has been reported. Just give you an idea of magnitude of this storm, below are some rainbow animated loops of Odile just before and after making landfall and some pictures of devastation from people in the area.

 rbtop-animated2

CaboSanLucasdamage1Damage2Damage3Odile is likely weaken to remnant low, over next couple days. A trough moving California may carry Odile’s remnants into Southwest US, later this week. Meanwhile Hurricane Edouard, is still going well out in the Atlantic (as shown below) it is almost category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 110mph, as of the 5pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Satellite image shows an a large eye has cleared out and is surrounded by ring of deep convection. This is a good sign of hurricane intensifying and Edouard will likely become a category 3 later tonight. Edouard still expected recurve into North Atlantic. However a wave model shows some 3 to 4 feet swells impacting the East Coast on Wednesday.

rbtop-animated

Major Hurricane Odile Threatens Baja California, Hurricane Edouard No Threat to Land

Miguel Pierre Tropics

9/15 7:00am EDT Update: Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico as major category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 125mph at about 925pm PDT overnight. An automated station on Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind at 89mph anda gust 116mph. As of the 5am Advisory, Odile is still moving north-northwest over the Baja California and has winds of 115mph. It will continue to weaken today over land. Edouard is now a category 2 hurricane with winds at 105mph. Edouard is likely to become the first major Atlantic hurricane of the season and remains no threat to land.

This post is update to previous post overnight on these storms:

Odile continued to rapidly intensify overnight. It’s now major category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 135mph and is moving northwest at 14mph. It continues to be a threat to Baja California.  The storm appears to now have a double eyewall and will likely go under an eyewall replacement cycle soon.  Little in change in strength over next 24 to 36 hours, as comes very close to southern tip of Baja California. An aircraft reconnaissance is on route to the storm and should have a better assessment on the intensity. Hurricane warnings now stretch further to Punta Abreojos on the west coast of Baja California. Odile is expect to rapidly weaken, once it moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures off the central west coast of Baja California:

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Edouard has become a category 1 hurricane in the Central Atlantic. The fourth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. Maximum sustained winds are 80mph and it currently moving to the northwest at 14mph. An eye has become more visible in satellite imagery, over the past several hours. Edouard is now forecast to become a major category 3 hurricane. But it will remain no threat to any land. A large, deep trough over Eastern US and Western Atlantic will force Edouard to turn to north than northeast this week:

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Rest of the tropical Atlantic looks quiet right now. Some medium to long-range models show tropical systems developing in the Caribbean or the Atlantic. However these models have low reliability, at this range and solutions could vary from run to run. People need to use extreme caution, using these model forecasts.