There will be another storm coming for Christmas night into Tuesday morning from the gulf of mexico. Models are still inconsistent on a exact storm track, but most models track this storm to our west and without cold air in place, it looks like it will be all rain for most of the tri-state area. As the storm intensifies rapidly over upstate NY or New England, colder air will rush in behind the storm late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and their could be some flurries, especially north of NYC.

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The scenerio discussed in the prevous post for the storm on 12/23 has not changed on the models. It looks like it will be rain for the entire area, and heavy at times on Saturday.

After that storm it will turn drier and cooler for X-mas eve, but still be a little above normal. Which will set us for the next potential storm sometime between the X-mas and the 27. The models show storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico and slowly moving up the coast, tracking to our south and east during that time frame. At this time, it appears most likely to be all rain, due to the lack of cold air, but it’s still more than 5 days away and I will continue to watch it. This morning’s GFS makes it a little more interesting.

All the models continue to show the cold front passing through area Monday night moving well to the south on Tuesday, with low pressure developing well south and east us. So I now expect Tuesday be drier and turn colder. On Wednesday the core of cold air be on top of us, temps may not make it out of the 30’s. Then after that, High pressure begins to move offshore and we get into a SW flow that will bring in milder into the area for late week and into next weekend.

This means that our next storm coming in on 12/22 and 12/23 will more likely bring us rain than snow. After looking at the models since yesterday, it doesn’t appear at this time we will be tapping enough of cold air from Canada to produce an appreciable snowfall here. They have seemed to reach a consensus that one storm developing over the SW states on Wednesday should move NE through the Mid-West and Western Great Lakes on Friday, while a secondary storm forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday. This should be bring rain into area Friday night and Saturday. Of course, this storm is still more than 5 days away, and things still could change.

As for X-mas day, looks like it will be mild until another cold front move through later in day or at night. The 0z GFS shows another storm coming up from the south but it looks mild enough for mainly rain as well. A white christmas looks unlikely at this point.

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