Tropical disturbance invest 96L was upgraded to tropical depression late yesterday. Then upgraded to tropical storm this morning with maximum sustained of 45mph and it is currently moving NW at 9mph. The storm is still most likely to gradually recurve away from the US, as it begins to feel influence of troughiness or a weakness in subtropical ridge over the Western Atlantic. Cristobal is now under a light shear environment with base of trough to the north. It is also moving over sea-surface temperatures near 26C-30C. This will allow for more strengthening today and tonight. These favorable conditions are likely to persist into middle of this week and Cristobal is likely to become a hurricane. The only impacts expected are some high waves and rip tides along the US East Coast this week.

This storm going as pretty much going as I had wrote about in my last post Some models over the last 48 hours waffled between a track over Florida/Gulf of Mexico and recurve farther east into the North Atlantic. But now that there is a more defined and deeper center of circulation and actual data on the extent of troughiness over the Western Atlantic, the model consensus is back with a recurve away from the US East Coast. Despite the model differences and media hype, this has remained the most likely scenario here all along. This is due to the pattern recognition and past experience with tropical cyclones. The ECMWF operational model, often most reliable and was the most consistent with this solution in the medium range. Unfortunately, it is not on many of spaghetti model plots that are used or shown around the media. The ECMWF ensembles had many members still showing a tropical wave being steered by low-level easterly flow into Florida/Gulf of Mexico. This is clearly not correct anymore.

Cristobal will also be enhancing  and warmth over local Tri-State area this week. Temperatures may approach 90 in some spots, by Wednesday or Thursday with sunshine, a westerly flow, 588dm+ 500mb heights and 850mb temps near 18C. Humidity will be on the increase as well. However, this heat and humidity will likely be short-lived again, with another deep trough and cold front approaching from the west at the end of the week. Temperatures will likely return near to below normal next weekend. Long-range guidance shows the ridge building east again during the first week of September. But will have too see how much Cristobal influences the NAO pattern after this week, which could have an impact. Multiple times this summer we’ve seen long-range guidance show prolonged heat or warmth, only to have it muted as we get closer.