The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance of the SE coast of the United States, to become first tropical storm of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Their latest tropical weather outlook at 2pm Sunday, gives a 60% chance of tropical storm formation over next 48hrs. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Arthur:

Currently this disturbance has a broad low-level center, with northerly shear displacing convection to the south and east of center. The shear is being caused by an deep upper-level trough over Western Atlantic. This trough will be replaced an upper-level ridge early this week. Which will result in a more favorable upper-level environment for further organization, as the disturbance tracks slowly south or southwest over over next few days.  Then later in the week,  this storm will begin track northeast, ahead of next trough and cold front approaching from the west.  For the New York Tri-state area, the model consensus at this time, keeps this storm far enough offshore, that any impacts would be very minimal for the July 4th holiday weekend. Some rough surf, at the beaches. But not much else. If the cold front and trough is slower and deeper, this may allow the storm to track closer to our area. However, this scenario is unlikely with no high-latitude blocking. Stay tuned for more blog updates on any new developments with this disturbance this week.